Smuggler Archive

So what you're saying is that if I use 100% tools, and the 3rd darkest teal composite color, while in a crafting center in front of a weapon crafting station I'll be gauranteed a completely random slice? Sweet!

Now to upset you all a little more, or maybe this is just for you practical math nuts out there

It's random, but do probabilities play into it?

I once had another smuggler tell me that when she's slicing very nice weapons, krayt enhanced and such, she slices a fwe CDEFs first, until she gets 2 or 3 spd slices in a row, after which she'll slice the good wep. She said she usually got dmg slices after that.

SO, I know it's random ... pls don't yell at me ... BUT

Would you think that slicing 5 spd slices in a row would up your probability to slice dmg in the next couple of slices? Basically, it's 50/50 your first time, but then you slice spd, so spd/dmg becomes 45/55 for the next one because getting 2 of the same slice in a row might not happen with randomness. You slice another spd, and the third becomes 40/60 for spd/dmg, because 3 spd slices in a row is even less common (though I get it all the time) than two in a row. And it just keeps going like that.

Or is it, as I think it is, that each and every single instance is random, and it doesn't matter whatsoever what else you slice.

I know you'll all yell at me for this, but it's just a little something I wondered about with my spare time.

aye, it was just an idea my roommate and i were tossing around one day cause the devs decided not to tell the customers fully how their game works

don't you all notice that there are SO many little things out there that you have to figure out through trial and error? that's just nuts

Message Edited by Duedroth on 07-30-2004 08:04 PM

affraid so and % percent average i found out through experimentation is based on xp erned not wether your a master smuggler or not. i dropped master smuggler for nearly a month before i dropped it usally sliced in 30% most of the time with some as high as 45% after dropping master slicing ranged never changed and when i toook master stil never changed yaet been master since last nov too and still haven't capped the slicing xp so i basically not only is it random but also no bonuses if your a master smuggler

Duedroth, that's not how probability works. If you have a 50% chance to get a damage slice, it's a 50% chance for EVERY WEAPON. Getting several speed slices in a row does not mean, contrary to popular misconception, that you are more likely to get a damage slice on the next weapon. Think of it as the probability "resetting" every time you load the slicing screen. Streaks mean absolutely nothing and they will average out over time.

Take flipping a coin. If you flipped a coin 9 times and got heads 9 times in a row, it doesn't mean that the coin is more likely to come up tails on the tenth flip, just because you got 9 heads in a row. The coin has, just as it always did, a 50/50 chance of landing on tails. The string was statistically unlikely, but certainly not impossible. Indeed if you were to flip the coin a million times, you might get several runs similar to this, but over the whole course of the million flips, you would see that the number of "heads" results would be roughly equal to the number of "tails" results. Further, as Caylin has so humorously stated, there are data on thousands of slices that back up the fact that slicing works EXACTLY like this.

You all dare to defy the Smuggler Gods?!!?!

Blasphemy!

May Smugly The Powerful One damn you to eternal lag on Coronet, Caylin

NOW DANCE BEFORE THEY GET EVEN ANGRIER

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Duedroth wrote:
Now to upset you all a little more, or maybe this is just for you practical math nuts out there

It's random, but do probabilities play into it?

I once had another smuggler tell me that when she's slicing very nice weapons, krayt enhanced and such, she slices a fwe CDEFs first, until she gets 2 or 3 spd slices in a row, after which she'll slice the good wep. She said she usually got dmg slices after that.

SO, I know it's random ... pls don't yell at me ... BUT

Would you think that slicing 5 spd slices in a row would up your probability to slice dmg in the next couple of slices? Basically, it's 50/50 your first time, but then you slice spd, so spd/dmg becomes 45/55 for the next one because getting 2 of the same slice in a row might not happen with randomness. You slice another spd, and the third becomes 40/60 for spd/dmg, because 3 spd slices in a row is even less common (though I get it all the time) than two in a row. And it just keeps going like that.

Or is it, as I think it is, that each and every single instance is random, and it doesn't matter whatsoever what else you slice.

I know you'll all yell at me for this, but it's just a little something I wondered about with my spare time.

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I remember my dad telling mea story about a true event that once happened in a casino once. It was at the roulette wheel, and people discovered that all recent numbers had been black for awhile..

so the players around the wheel figured that "red must come up soon" and started betting red, but black kept coming up.. so they bet more on red, and black kept coming up. And they figured "ok, NOW RED MUST come up.. and still black kept coming up..

People only bet on what they thought was statistically going to happen.. but it wasnt, its always 50-50,

Same with slicing.

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Smuggler_Caylin wrote:

If you are getting alot of same-type slices in a row, IT IS PURE LUCK

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To those who responded to my "probability" question,

I've known that it's random PER slice, just as it is when flipping a coin, statistically. But way back when nobody knew anything, my rommate and I would fiddle around with slicing and wonder about it. He was in a statistics course at the time, and we were wondering about the probability of it.

But, you're very right about the "probability" of a slice, roulette table (although the casinos "fix" them), and coins resetting for each separate instance.

Just thought it'd be fun to bring up, and wondered if Caylin was going to go nuts at me

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TheMuse wrote:

Take flipping a coin. If you flipped a coin 9 times and got heads 9 times in a row, it doesn't mean that the coin is more likely to come up tails on the tenth flip, just because you got 9 heads in a row. The coin has, just as it always did, a 50/50 chance of landing on tails. The string was statistically unlikely, but certainly not impossible. Indeed if you were to flip the coin a million times, you might get several runs similar to this, but over the whole course of the million flips, you would see that the number of "heads" results would be roughly equal to the number of "tails" results. Further, as Caylin has so humorously stated, there are data on thousands of slices that back up the fact that slicing works EXACTLY like this.

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