Smuggler Archive
Thread: People will hate me… but here is the secret…
Obed wrote:
Karamak wrote:Actually, statistically speaking the chances of getting 4 like slices in a row are the same as getting 4,000 or 4,000,000,000 like slices in a row 50%. the reason for this is each slice is its own event.KaramakWell meaning point, but technically not true. The chances of getting two speed slices in a row are 25%, not 50%. When you do two slices here are the options:
- speed on first, speed on second
- damage on first, damage on second
- speed on first, damage on second
- damage on first, speed on second.
When you are working on getting x number of a specific slice in a row, the oddsincrease exponentionally by a factor2^x. Getting the desired slice once in a row is (1:2)^1 or 1:2 (50%). Twice in a row is (1:2)^2 or 1:4 (25%). Three times in a row is (1:2)^3 or 1:8 (12.5%). It halfs every time. You see the pattern.
4 of a particular slice in a row is a 6.25% chance. 4,000 in a row is approximately a (7.6 x 10^-1203)%chance (for those of you who don'tdo scientific notation, that's 1203 0's after the decmil point before you get to the 7.6. ie blastedly small). For 4,000,000 in a row, the numbers are too big for my calculator to handle.
If you're talking any slice in a row (i.e. you don't care if it's speed or damage) your chances double. Two of either slice in a row gets 2:2^2 or 50%. Three of either slice in a row is 2:2^3 or 25%. Four of either slice in a row is 2:2^4 or 12.5%. 4,000 of either slice in a row is 2:2^4,000 or (1.5 x 10^-1202)%. Still too big for 4,000,000 to be done on my calc.
While the chances of any particular individual slice are 50%, once you start talking about slices in a row, your math gets much more complex.
Message Edited by Obed on 06-10-2004 10:56 PM
This one's right. The odds of any _single_ flip/slice are 50/50, but the odds of getting a straight _pattern_ are much lower. 1 in 2, to 1 in 4, to 1 in 8, to 1 in 16 for the fourth flip or slice. You're considering the linkage of events, not the single event. Sure, on the 4000th slice/flip, your odds are still 50/50, but your odds of having gotten there as all-speed or all-damage are astronomically small, and so are your odds of remaining all-speed or all-damage.
Most of this can be explained by 2 natural circumstances:
Humans tend to remember things that stand out. (meaning that if you did in fact have a great pattern prove out, that you might forget the 7 times it 'didn't' or 'almost did' prove out)
We tend to work on small or incomplete statistical samples. (an axiom in statistics is that you can never have too much data, but you can always have too little. A sample set of 20 slices is abysmally small considering there's both a direction and magnitude to consider to develop a good profile)
from the PoV of a coder ...
pretty funny how a "$slice = random(2);" function can create so many legends and other stupid ideas.
unless some1figures out the exact moment (should be beimpossible on a cluster withmulti proccessorsystems)where this procedure gets called, noone will ever be able to predict a slice type or damage.
i have no clue how so many peopleseesomething, wheres nothing to see.
why should the devs insert some kind of math there? it was intedend to be a RANDOM slice so the best idea would propebly be a "random()" function.
SaraeItha wrote:
The fact is that slicing is a puzzle, a gambling sub-game invented by the developers. I and several others know the true secret not because we sat down and crunced the numbers, but because we listen to our gut instincts
this is the funniest thing I fave ever seen. Do you honestly think the developers created a gambling sub-game and that is what slicing is?
yimaz wrote:
Shazbot! me 2 (i was 7 or so i think) It was Mork and Mindy, Chips (had the action figures), Happy days, Lavern and Shirley, The Muppet Show (the alice cooperepisode my fav), Whats Happening (hey, hey, hey!) the list goes on but I hope ive brought back some lost memories!
JohnHackworth wrote:
yimaz wrote:
Its next to Ork! (e.i. Mork and Mindy, old 70's show....anone?? god im old).........
Watched it every day it was on when I was growing up! Nanoo Nanoo!
-Hack
Tonteth wrote:
I always find it funny when the crazies think they see a pattern in a roll.
And since weapons are capped at 35% slices, you won't see anything higher.
Not true....One of the last weapons I sliced before I dropped smuggler was a 38 percent damage slice on a Geo Pistol....And have heard of other smugglers getting the same (although it is extremely rare).
RankorCity wrote:
Tonteth wrote:
I always find it funny when the crazies think they see a pattern in a roll.
And since weapons are capped at 35% slices, you won't see anything higher.
Not true....One of the last weapons I sliced before I dropped smuggler was a 38 percent damage slice on a Geo Pistol....And have heard of other smugglers getting the same (although it is extremely rare).
Screenshots people.. screenshots.. no on is going to believe you otherwise.. and some probly won't anyway.
Screenshots people.. screenshots.. no on is going to believe you otherwise.. and some probly won't anyway.
I just got a 69% damage slice on my CDF pistol! Woohoo!!
SBRD0C wrote:
Screenshots people.. screenshots.. no on is going to believe you otherwise.. and some probly won't anyway.
Honestly, I could care less if people believe me or not. I don't believe that the percentage that you get is what you ACTUALLY get anyway. On that same 38 percent damage slice, the math equaled an actual 42 percent slice. Not possible, you say? We all know this game works perfectly with no flaws whatsoever....
The fact is, some people think that because they haven't done it themselves, that it cant be done period...
I have often wondered if there is such a thing as an exceptional / legendary slice?
RankorCity wrote:
Honestly, I could care less if people believe me or not. I don't believe that the percentage that you get is what you ACTUALLY get anyway. On that same 38 percent damage slice, the math equaled an actual 42 percent slice. Not possible, you say? We all know this game works perfectly with no flaws whatsoever....
The fact is, some people think that because they haven't done it themselves, that it cant be done period...
I have often wondered if there is such a thing as an exceptional / legendary slice?
SImple thing is, if you can't prove it, your post is just adding to the rumors, of which we already have plenty; therefore, it serves no purpose to say "I did this" when none are there to testify on your behalf or help prove your case.
If you don't care if people believe you.. why post it?
Datink_Nieleft wrote:
Congratulations! All of you that have read this entire post have succesfully earned your Ph.D's in Quantum Mechanics witha emphasis on Space-Time randomness and your Associates Degree in Card counting!
Cool can Iget a raise now?