Smuggler Archive
Thread: People will hate me… but here is the secret…
You can predict slice types and even (to some degree) percentages. We do already have a system in game where we can choose our slice with a little bit of risk of being wrong. (I belive it was always there) We also spend more resources to do this: (wuks, clamps, knives, survival knives)
The false analogy the mathamaticians make is in their stated assumption:
"Because true randomness adhears to the law of averages and because the slicing system adhears to the law of averages, then the slicing system is truly random. "
Anyone who really looks at this argument see’s the fallacy. This would not be true if the system had patterns and was made to look random. How would you make it appear random? Make it follow the law of averages. How could you make it predictable? Add patterns… pretty simple stuff folks.
That statement the mathematicians are making is a false analogy which is one of the more common errors in inductive reasoning. All laws have exceptions and the devs exploited it. (Devs are exploiters!!!!)
Mathematicians are generally experts in deductive reasoning, so are programmers. They are easily fooled by inductive leaps such as this. Mathemiticians and scientists are more suited for studying things which come from nature and are truly chaotic. They are easily fooled by a system which is made to simulate nature.
As a matter of fact, the mathemeticians produced their own evidence to support the opposition. The opposition, the REAL smugglers had a hunch. They are the ones who listen more to that "gut feeling" and pay attention to that little voice in side them. However, that little voice will never be enough to convice a mathematician. In many of the studies, the slice types were almost exactly the same after 100 slices. This is too perfect adhearance to the law of averages which would be more likely to happen in a rigged computer system than a system based on pure chance.
The fact is that slicing is a puzzle, a gambling sub-game invented by the developers. I and several others know the true secret not because we sat down and crunced the numbers, but because we listen to our gut instincts
That is why we do not want to invest additional time development time dumbing down all the "pick-a-slice" code so just any lame person can figure it out. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist… then again a rocket scientist probably would not make a very tood smuggler…
Oh, and you didn’t hear this from me, kid. /wink
PS: there are 35%+ weapon slices in the game… they are very, very rare. The mathematicians will tell you that they don’t exist because they have not seen one in any of their sample data. What self respecting smuggler wants to hear the odds anyway, huh?
XENO
Here is the dumbed down version:
people have said it many times: Everyone who has sliced knows that slices often comes in "patterns". If you just got several speed slices, there is a very high probability that your next slice is gonna be a damage slice.
SaraeItha wrote:
You can predict slice types and even (to some degree) percentages. We do already have a system in game where we can choose our slice with a little bit of risk of being wrong. (I belive it was always there) We also spend more resources to do this: (wuks, clamps, knives, survival knives)
The false analogy the mathamaticians make is in their stated assumption:
"Because true randomness adhears to the law of averages and because the slicing system adhears to the law of averages, then the slicing system is truly random. "
Anyone who really looks at this argument see’s the fallacy. This would not be true if the system had patterns and was made to look random. How would you make it appear random? Make it follow the law of averages. How could you make it predictable? Add patterns… pretty simple stuff folks.
That statement the mathematicians are making is a false analogy which is one of the more common errors in inductive reasoning. All laws have exceptions and the devs exploited it. (Devs are exploiters!!!!)
Mathematicians are generally experts in deductive reasoning, so are programmers. They are easily fooled by inductive leaps such as this. Mathemiticians and scientists are more suited for studying things which come from nature and are truly chaotic. They are easily fooled by a system which is made to simulate nature.
As a matter of fact, the mathemeticians produced their own evidence to support the opposition. The opposition, the REAL smugglers had a hunch. They are the ones who listen more to that "gut feeling" and pay attention to that little voice in side them. However, that little voice will never be enough to convice a mathematician. In many of the studies, the slice types were almost exactly the same after 100 slices. This is too perfect adhearance to the law of averages which would be more likely to happen in a rigged computer system than a system based on pure chance.
The fact is that slicing is a puzzle, a gambling sub-game invented by the developers. I and several others know the true secret not because we sat down and crunced the numbers, but because we listen to our gut instincts
That is why we do not want to invest additional time development time dumbing down all the "pick-a-slice" code so just any lame person can figure it out. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist… then again a rocket scientist probably would not make a very tood smuggler…
Oh, and you didn’t hear this from me, kid. /wink
PS: there are 35%+ weapon slices in the game… they are very, very rare. The mathematicians will tell you that they don’t exist because they have not seen one in any of their sample data. What self respecting smuggler wants to hear the odds anyway, huh?
XENO
OUCH MY HEAD HURTS!
Geaux Darkcloud
SaraeItha wrote:
Here is the dumbed down version:
people have said it many times: Everyone who has sliced knows that slices often comes in "patterns". If you just got several speed slices, there is a very high probability that your next slice is gonna be a damage slice.
This also works with blackjack and roulette too. Just be sure to go to a table where they use multiple decks for black jack. They face the cards up and keep an eye out for strings of face/10 cards and low 2 or 3 cards. Almost like card counting except you don't need to count. Just look. In roullette if red/black comes up several times in a row odds are the next one will be the opposite color. Just be careful of those pesky 0s 
On another note I think what you are getting at is that the game is designed to be 50/50 in the slicing department. This thatgetting several speed slices in a row increases your chance of getting damage slices in a row. In the end it's a 50/50 chance but pay attention and bet beg when the odds seem to be in your favor. Otherwise you are going to slice that Krayt pistol for 12% speed..errr...never mind that's just me.
The ball has no memory. Patterns only exist in the mind of the person.