Smuggler Archive
Thread: Random prediction on slicing?
Message Edited by MISTagent01 on 01-19-2005 01:22 PM
Samaw wrote:
Nope no joke serious as can be.
look....its RANDOM there is NO way to predict it...if you did get 8/9 then guess what? IT WAS LUCK u know why? ITS RANDOM
I could say hey if I get red then blue then red agan it will be a dam slice and I could be right...I could get it 4/5 times the first 5 times trying it but guess what......ITS RANDOM so next time I did it I bet I would get around 1/5 then 3/5 then 4/5 then 2/5.....know why? ITS RANDOM!!!!!!!!!
Message Edited by -Zon- on 01-19-2005 01:37 PM
I'll take the flames, but all I'm saying is get yourself 10 weapons,of the same kind and try it. What will it hurt and tell me what you see after doing the ten weapons and for any Smugglers on the Chilastra server ill even provide the crate of weapons, clamps, knives & WUK's. Putting my money were my mouth is so to speak!!!!!
-Zon- wrote:
look....its RANDOM there is NO way to predict it...if you did get 8/9 then guess what? IT WAS LUCK u know why? ITS RANDOM
I could say hey if I get red then blue then red agan it will be a dam slice and I could be right...I could get it 4/5 times the first 5 times trying it but guess what......ITS RANDOM so next time I did it I bet I would get around 1/5 then 3/5 then 4/5 then 2/5.....know why? ITS RANDOM!!!!!!!!!
Message Edited by -Zon- on 01-19-2005 01:37 PM
Don't worry about the percent of slice, because I agree there is no control on it. But I think you will be in for a surpise. Plus when give this a try, trynot to spend to much time in between slices.
DrevenStrobe wrote:
You know...when I get home from work (another hour or so), since I don't really have anything more pressing to do, I'll play this little game...just for sh!ts and giggles.
I'll pull 4 crates of Survival Knives off my vendor and slice them,recording Red / Blue wire, Damage / Speed slice, and % Improvement.
Then I'll post all the raw data here for everyone to overanalyze until they're heart's content...and only to prove that there is NO pattern.
Oh...would you like timestamps with that too?
Message Edited by Samaw on 01-19-2005 04:52 PM
Samaw wrote:
I'll take the flames, but all I'm saying is....
This is not a flame:
Dude with all due respect people are bustin your chops because your talking to many smugglers who have been smugglers or in this forum for almost 2yrs. This issue has been tested at least 5 times by players and correspondents alike. Slicing is random it is a proven fact, it has been proven time and time and time and time and time and time and time and time and time and time (see where I'm going with this) and time and time and time and time and time again.
yimaz wrote:
Samaw wrote:
I'll take the flames, but all I'm saying is....
This is not a flame:
Dude with all due respect people are bustin your chops because your talking to many smugglers who have been smugglers or in this forum for almost 2yrs. This issue has been tested at least 5 times by players and correspondents alike. Slicing is random it is a proven fact, it has been proven time and time and time and time and time and time and time and time and time and time (see where I'm going with this) and time and time and time and time and time again.
I am not a noob at smuggler. I have been a smuggler for a little over a year.Lets see what kind of results Drevenstrobe gets.
Slicing is random; as random as a computer will allow.
While I do realize that random number generators require some sort of "seed" to generate these numbers, and there actually is some patern behind everything, chaos theory proves that we cannot use that pattern to predict what the next outcome will be.
Why?
Follow me for a moment, lets take a single server's raw data. First, we take all players on a server capable of slicing. Lets also say that slicing mathematics is done server side, to avoid exploitation of slicing an item. Now, we'll say that we know the Random Number Generator's(refered to as a RNG from now on) seed, and can run the RNG clientside, with a prediction of the next number generated with 100% accuracy.
(For argument's sake, we'll say that the RNG generates its numbers from its seeds per milisecond based on the internal clock of the Computer it resides in, and that our internal clock is synchronus to the server's internal clock.)
Now, you have to take into account the fact that every player capable of slicing will slice when they choose, Human Beings are truely random, unlike computers, which exist in ones and zeros. So, this RNG is generating numbers for other people at non-constant intervals. Made more non-constant due to lag, packetloss, disconnects, distractions, etcetera. Litterally meaning, in between your slicing of a non-krayted T-21 and a krayted T-21, fifty people *could have* sliced multiple weapons each. Your next slice would not be the next number in the sequence, but a number at least one hundred numbers down the line, if each player sliced multiple weapons each(minimum of two for fifty other players slicing).
Thusly, a non-random sequence of eventually repeating numbers in a set, but probably very long pattern, becomes a random, orderless list of numbers in no paticular sequence at all.
Samaw wrote:
yimaz wrote:
Samaw wrote:
I'll take the flames, but all I'm saying is....
This is not a flame:
Dude with all due respect people are bustin your chops because your talking to many smugglers who have been smugglers or in this forum for almost 2yrs. This issue has been tested at least 5 times by players and correspondents alike. Slicing is random it is a proven fact, it has been proven time and time and time and time and time and time and time and time and time and time (see where I'm going with this) and time and time and time and time and time again.
I am not a noob at smuggler. I have been a smuggler for a little over a year.Lets see what kind of results Drevenstrobe gets.
OMG ok I tried.....
Your sure acting like a n00b and if I had a nickel for ever time we've heard the EXACT same quote "Lets see what kind of results...." coming from somemath geniuswho swears they know the "secret" to slicing I would be a rich man. My God do you not think a CORRESPONDENT would have not figured this out like a year ago? Dreven will come back the same way he has come back everyother time he has done a test. Tell you its random, then you will say no its not and the flames will start then I have to bust out the chewbacca defense on you. Dont make me do it man!! For the love of all things holy do not make me do it!!!!
Ahhhh, now I feel better.
Message Edited by yimaz on 01-19-2005 05:05 PM
Nicolas_Frost wrote:
Okay, Samaw, just to state this for probably the five billionth time.
Slicing is random; as random as a computer will allow.
While I do realize that random number generators require some sort of "seed" to generate these numbers, and there actually is some patern behind everything, chaos theory proves that we cannot use that pattern to predict what the next outcome will be.
Why?
Follow me for a moment, lets take a single server's raw data. First, we take all players on a server capable of slicing. Lets also say that slicing mathematics is done server side, to avoid exploitation of slicing an item. Now, we'll say that we know the Random Number Generator's(refered to as a RNG from now on) seed, and can run the RNG clientside, with a prediction of the next number generated with 100% accuracy.
(For argument's sake, we'll say that the RNG generates its numbers from its seeds per milisecond based on the internal clock of the Computer it resides in, and that our internal clock is synchronus to the server's internal clock.)
Now, you have to take into account the fact that every player capable of slicing will slice when they choose, Human Beings are truely random, unlike computers, which exist in ones and zeros. So, this RNG is generating numbers for other people at non-constant intervals. Made more non-constant due to lag, packetloss, disconnects, distractions, etcetera. Litterally meaning, in between your slicing of a non-krayted T-21 and a krayted T-21, fifty people *could have* sliced multiple weapons each. Your next slice would not be the next number in the sequence, but a number at least one hundred numbers down the line, if each player sliced multiple weapons each(minimum of two for fifty other players slicing).
Thusly, a non-random sequence of eventually repeating numbers in a set, but probably very long pattern, becomes a random, orderless list of numbers in no paticular sequence at all.
I'm not claiming to have figured out what the seed is. What I am stating is that the color as to rather you get a damage slice or speed slice stays the same for about 20 to 30 seconds which will allow you to a tell slice to see what color is doing what and then try to get the color on the weapon you want. Yes it is constantly changing but not every second.
Message Edited by Samaw on 01-19-2005 05:16 PM