Shipwright Archive

All that I see here is that you've provided some intersting evidience that the rate of schematic drops is not 1% but rather 0.5% or somewhere in between. I severely doubt that those three (or 9 depending on how you look at them) sets will show any statistically significant deviation from random.

Plus I'm getting MAJOR deja vu from smuggler threads from about a year ago

---

Jagged-F3l wrote:

I would not necessarily say that you have proven the theory. Applying scientific method, first you need to state the hypothesis. Second, you need a control. Third, I would say that your statistical sample is rather small. Who's to say that it doesn't depend on the server, the number of shipwrights on the server, how much shipwright skill you have?

---

In order to a test like you suggest I would need the access of a DEV or CSR and if I did have that access I wouldnt need to test it as I probably could find out without doing it. LOL

Tyranus

OK now tell me why in the 3-400 or so RE's I've done I got 6/8, 1/8, 6/8 and 6/8.

Got first disk at 2-1-1-1 (6/8)
2nd at 2-2-2-2 (1/8)
3rd at 4-4-4-4 (6/8)
4th at Master (6/8)

For me 6/8 is almost the only disk in the game.

Message Edited by Shadwe on 11-11-2004 04:54 AM

I got 6/8 fairly rapidly too. I've just been REing a few a night. I have 4 of the discs right now no duplicates.

---

Bynder wrote:
All that I see here is that you've provided some intersting evidience that the rate of schematic drops is not 1% but rather 0.5% or somewhere in between. I severely doubt that those three (or 9 depending on how you look at them) sets will show any statistically significant deviation from random.

Plus I'm getting MAJOR deja vu from smuggler threads from about a year ago

---

When I first started shipwright I was told if I start getting alot of crit fails in a row I should log out or load to reset my rates. This intrigued me. If there is in fact one generator to run everything then its quite possible this can affect alot. While crafting several times I did in fact get into periods where I was gettingcrit fail after crit fail. So I would log and wow everything went back to normal.

With this applied to finding disks its quite possible that a person can get "stuck" as it were to finding disks. IE getting bad rolls all the time. If logging or loading can in fact reset your chances then the only thing this proves for sure is that sometimes the generator gets stuck. Which is why I am going to test it more. On the far outside it could prove that our successes are tracked and caclulated accordingly with logging out "zeroing" (as it were) the tracked values made.

Again I am testing this again just to see what happens. If my results are the same or very close to it then frequentlogging or loading can affect the outcome.

I was a smuggler for a time and never felt even once that my slices had any kind of variable or pattern. I hunt alot and I mean alot and never once have I felt that the rate of loot gain had any kind of pattern or variable afixed too it. But REing loot since JTL came out I keep feeling something isnt as random as we think. Not saying that it isnt random. But I believe there are variables involved.

Tyranus

---

DocSavag wrote:
I got 6/8 fairly rapidly too. I've just been REing a few a night. I have 4 of the discs right now no duplicates.

---

This is something that perplexes me. Why is it others get disk 6/8 easy peasy yet, in the 100+ disks I have gotten, I have only found 2 disk 6/8s. Could be random. Could be a different disk for each player that is difficult. Could be I am bugged.

It might be choice 3 since it was disk 6/8 that my tool ate the first time I tried to combine disks for a schem.

Tyranus

I imagine that every client has a "random number generator" to do the dice rolling.
Each generator will require a "seed" to start it off.

It may be that re-logging after a series of crit fails resets that seed to something more conducive to your crafting rolls ?

This is just a guess of course, and is dependent on how the "seed" is generated in the first place.

As a developer in a previous incarnation, I saw a neat solution to generating a nearly random "seed" - take the date stamp in years, months, days, hours, minutes and seconds, then reverse it.
Do that each time you generate a random number, and the results will aproach seem purely random :-)

---

Dark_0ne wrote:
I imagine that every client has a "random number generator" to do the dice rolling.
Each generator will require a "seed" to start it off.

It may be that re-logging after a series of crit fails resets that seed to something more conducive to your crafting rolls ?

This is just a guess of course, and is dependent on how the "seed" is generated in the first place.

As a developer in a previous incarnation, I saw a neat solution to generating a nearly random "seed" - take the date stamp in years, months, days, hours, minutes and seconds, then reverse it.
Do that each time you generate a random number, and the results will aproach seem purely random :-)

---

This is most likely an insignificant sample size to determine anything from. The results you have gotten are possible even with a truely random number, or it would not be random.