Shipwright Archive
Thread: KSE Firespray disk dupes...4 number 8s in a row
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FlexmanUK
Sat Mar 19, 2005 3:57 am
#1
Yes I've had 4 number 8 disks in a row. All in the last 4 days. Lucky me or is anyone else experiencing this all of a sudden?
Prior to the last two publishes I'd not had a fragment drop out for some time.
TomoRainer
Sat Mar 19, 2005 4:49 am
#2
There's a lot of evidence to suggest that one type of disk is common and will be received way out of proportion to a random distribution. Likewise there may be one type that's excessively rare. This may well somehow be tied to an individual, or possibly by server, but in any event, I'm growing more and more suspicious that each type of disk does not have the same chance of dropping.
Corsican_Ogre
Sat Mar 19, 2005 10:00 am
#3
hehe for me its been disk 8 lately. /shrug Got 4 disk 8s in a row.
QuiJonOz
Sat Mar 19, 2005 10:56 am
#4
Out of my eight, I've received no Disk 8s. I've receivedtwo Disk 1s and two Disk 3s. Looks like a freakish run of luck (or lack thereof 
).
).
deaconfrost-bloodfin
Tue Mar 22, 2005 2:36 am
#5
how do i tell what disks i have ive gotten 2 soo far in the last week but it just says a disc and the company name no number?
can anyone message me or mail me ingame im iswas on bloodfin cause ill never find this thread again im sure thanks all !
Zaax
Tue Mar 22, 2005 4:59 am
#6
as this thread is specificly about this, ill repost my own data.
out of 16 disks, i got 5 number 4's and 4 number 8's. by me 5 was the rare one, never looted one yet. i ended making a 3:1 trade for it
Chickenbone
Tue Mar 22, 2005 10:12 am
#7
So far I have one disk #1, one disk #2, and three disk #6. I got the three disk #6 in a row. I was so disappointed.
Fuss
Tue Mar 22, 2005 2:02 pm
#8
The Odds of getting 1 of each different n/8 discs in 8 random trys (ie from 8 discs total) is 0.24% Yea less then a quarter of a 1% chance or 24 in 10000 trys.
Your going to gets some dupes, and unlucky people will get a bunch
Sar-larid
Tue Mar 22, 2005 3:38 pm
#9
I'm rather convinced at this point that some people have common disks associated with them(ones you get many many of) and rare ones(ones you may likely NEVER get on your own).
In my time, I've gotten 5 1/8's and 5 2/8's. I have NEVER gotten an 8/8(had to trade to get one for my first schematic, and it's all I need for my secondschematic now).
If my suspician is true, you might try to find 1 or 2 other shipwrights with the opposite situation to you. Likely it will pay off a lot more quickly AND in the long runwhen one person gets multiple 8/8's and no 1/8's, and another gets multiple 1/8's and no 8/8's.
TomoRainer
Tue Mar 22, 2005 3:52 pm
#10
Glad to hear we've got the same suspicion going on, Sar-larid, you seem pretty deep into shipwright.
Anyway, it'll be really really hard to test this, but I think there's enough anecdotal evidence to think it may well be the case that a given shipwright will have one or two disks flagged as "common" while one or two may also be "rare." I'm a long-time smuggler, so I hate to think a system like this isn't entirely random, but so many people are reporting similar results that I have to think it's possible.
Anyway, it'll be really really hard to test this, but I think there's enough anecdotal evidence to think it may well be the case that a given shipwright will have one or two disks flagged as "common" while one or two may also be "rare." I'm a long-time smuggler, so I hate to think a system like this isn't entirely random, but so many people are reporting similar results that I have to think it's possible.
Fuss
Tue Mar 22, 2005 4:50 pm
#11
It's a distribution, I think the average person by odds is going to ahve atleast 3 duplicates of one disc befoer they get a whole set, Actually everythign said here, only confirms more to me that its all random, take some statistics and probability.
Fuss
TomoRainer
Tue Mar 22, 2005 5:17 pm
#12
There was an early thread about disks that had some very strong evidence for this, actually. I'll try to go dig it up.
Here's the best I could find for now. It isn't exactly what I was looking for, but check out some of the numbers in there. Petabyte had over 100 disks and had only found two disk 6s. Another guy reports having 7 of the same disk in a group of 24 extras. There are a number of other anecdotal cases in there supporting it. I know it certainly doesn't prove anything, but I think in the case of Petabyte's work, the support is pretty strong. I'll try to find something else on it later.
Here's the best I could find for now. It isn't exactly what I was looking for, but check out some of the numbers in there. Petabyte had over 100 disks and had only found two disk 6s. Another guy reports having 7 of the same disk in a group of 24 extras. There are a number of other anecdotal cases in there supporting it. I know it certainly doesn't prove anything, but I think in the case of Petabyte's work, the support is pretty strong. I'll try to find something else on it later.
Message Edited by TomoRainer on 03-22-2005 04:43 PM
Fuss
Wed Mar 23, 2005 6:10 am
#13
A Middle distribution I think is 28 discs before you get a full set, that would be for the average person. I know I am pretty close to a full set with only 10 discs so I would balance those less fortunate.
I always thought the numbers had something to do with the type of loot, but now I"m moving away from that.
Plus the only people that post about it are those that got unlucky and areneeding to vent their frustrationfor the most part.
~50% of people will have all 8 discs by their 28 disc.
~89% of people will have all 8 discs by their 56 disc.
Message Edited by Fuss on 03-23-2005 05:26 AM
Message Edited by Fuss on 03-23-2005 05:43 AM
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