Shipwright Archive
Thread: Firespray disk hunting tips
PetaByte32 wrote:
#7 is a joke by the way.
Kalandra wrote:
PetaByte32 wrote:
#7 is a joke by the way.
*mumbles, with Bra in mouth and chicken on head* what? oops
hahahahahaha. That was good. Thanks for making me laugh.
Tyranus
Redridge wrote:
ok... i get it... i've got to RE a bunch of items in order to procure the desired pieces... but, can anyone tell if the component level has a factor on the piece that is found?
In other words... of these pieces that are being found, how many of the 6/8 come from lvl 2 comps? or lvl 3?... etc, etc.
.....and thanks for clearing up the fact that Kuat Systems are NOT the only loot items that drop the schem pieces.
I am pretty sure lvl does not matter. I think i got my 6/8 off a lvl 1 and i am certian i got my 1/8 off a lvl 1 also.
off to make another..
I know you are not. What you are talking about is baseless superstition. People like you get 2 parts in a row and it spawns a bunch of hilarious "theories". Look at Diablo II as a great example of this. The code was examined and determined to be straight probability and yet people still insisted that fighting pindleskin with green armor on after a server reboot with a full moon would produce a windforce.
"Case in point. Since my last post, in this thread, I have found 5 disks. All 5 were disk 2/8. Random? Look at the odds. First of getting 5 disks. Then of getting all 5 disks the same. Lets focus on getting 5 disks all the same. Each chance is 1 in 8. But as you go on the odds change to getting the same disk. Like rolling an 8 sided dice 5 times and getting all "2"s. I would love for someone do the math on this to figure the exact odds of this. I think that last disk being 2/8 was somewhere around 30,000 to 1 odds."
Guess that blows this bit of crap out of the water huh? - "Keep your disks in your main inventory. I have tested this and I am less likely to get a duplicate disk if they are in my main inventory." One down a few more to go.
By the way, if you think 30,000 to 1 odds are bad, guess what chances of winning the lottery are about 70,000,000 to 1, and it still happens.
"The intention could be for it to be random but computers can not be random."
Please spare me your babble about something you know nothing about obviously. No computers can not be totally random, who cares. I can run a simulation on a TI-82 (what, 5 year old calculator?) and have it pick a number from 1 to 1000, and increment a corresponding position in an array, then have a printout that displays the percentage of each one in the array, and after enough iterations, guess what the percentage is? If you said close to 1 out of 1000, BINGO! You win! And thats on a damn calculator, so dont tell me that there is some huge gross error in the PNG that they are using.
You see thats the problem with probability, people for some reason assume that unlikely things can not happen, and that if unlikely things do happen, that there is something wrong. Guess what, if it COULDNT happen, it WOULDNT be random.
All of your statements are based on coincidental occurances, and you have really no information to back any of it up, and it all sounds like pure garbage.
Here let me help you:
if x < .005 then firespray_schem = yes
Thats about all the devs have to do to code this using a random method. Are you honestly going to tell me, that with the amount of debugging devs have to do, that it is programmed to interact with what you have in your inventory, how much of it is there, how many specific parts you already have ect? I think not. Its highly Illogical.
Do me a favor, keep a log of REing 5,000 parts. For this, keep your inventory 75% full with REd parts, and keep 7 of the 8 firespray schematic peices in your inventory.
After you do that, empty out your inventory totally, and keep no firespray parts in it. RE 5000 more parts. My guess is that you will not see any different results than the first time.
You see, in statistics and probability with dealing with random numbers, with something like this when the chances of getting a part are probably pretty low, a sample size of 500 (and possibly even 5000) is insignificant to determine any concrete data. I could just as well RE two things that were Level 5 Ion engines, get a firespray schem twice, and state that as the holy grail of finding schematics, and it would be total crap and you know it.
Message Edited by Malitevv on 11-05-2004 01:20 PM
????
Marzuk147 wrote:
"I am not talking about probability. I am talking about chaos."
I know you are not. What you are talking about is baseless superstition. People like you get 2 parts in a row and it spawns a bunch of hilarious "theories". Look at Diablo II as a great example of this. The code was examined and determined to be straight probability and yet people still insisted that fighting pindleskin with green armor on after a server reboot with a full moon would produce a windforce.
"Case in point. Since my last post, in this thread, I have found 5 disks. All 5 were disk 2/8. Random? Look at the odds. First of getting 5 disks. Then of getting all 5 disks the same. Lets focus on getting 5 disks all the same. Each chance is 1 in 8. But as you go on the odds change to getting the same disk. Like rolling an 8 sided dice 5 times and getting all "2"s. I would love for someone do the math on this to figure the exact odds of this. I think that last disk being 2/8 was somewhere around 30,000 to 1 odds."
Guess that blows this bit of crap out of the water huh? - "Keep your disks in your main inventory. I have tested this and I am less likely to get a duplicate disk if they are in my main inventory." One down a few more to go.
Only disk I didnt have was disk 6/8 at the time. Since that seems to be the clincher disk for me it still proves something. I have close 40 disks now not counting the ones I turned into schems. Only disk I have only ever found 2 or less of is 6/8.
By the way, if you think 30,000 to 1 odds are bad, guess what chances of winning the lottery are about 70,000,000 to 1, and it still happens.
"The intention could be for it to be random but computers can not be random."
Please spare me your babble about something you know nothing about obviously. No computers can not be totally random, who cares. I can run a simulation on a TI-82 (what, 5 year old calculator?) and have it pick a number from 1 to 1000, and increment a corresponding position in an array, then have a printout that displays the percentage of each one in the array, and after enough iterations, guess what the percentage is? If you said close to 1 out of 1000, BINGO! You win! And thats on a damn calculator, so dont tell me that there is some huge gross error in the PNG that they are using.
You see thats the problem with probability, people for some reason assume that unlikely things can not happen, and that if unlikely things do happen, that there is something wrong. Guess what, if it COULDNT happen, it WOULDNT be random.
All of your statements are based on coincidental occurances, and you have really no information to back any of it up, and it all sounds like pure garbage.
Here let me help you:
if x < .005 then firespray_schem = yes
Thats about all the devs have to do to code this using a random method. Are you honestly going to tell me, that with the amount of debugging devs have to do, that it is programmed to interact with what you have in your inventory, how much of it is there, how many specific parts you already have ect? I think not. Its highly Illogical.
Do me a favor, keep a log of REing 5,000 parts. For this, keep your inventory 75% full with REd parts, and keep 7 of the 8 firespray schematic peices in your inventory.
After you do that, empty out your inventory totally, and keep no firespray parts in it. RE 5000 more parts. My guess is that you will not see any different results than the first time.
You see, in statistics and probability with dealing with random numbers, with something like this when the chances of getting a part are probably pretty low, a sample size of 500 (and possibly even 5000) is insignificant to determine any concrete data. I could just as well RE two things that were Level 5 Ion engines, get a firespray schem twice, and state that as the holy grail of finding schematics, and it would be total crap and you know it.
It doesnt matter how many I have, Im not even a shipwright, I just know a moron when I see one.
"By the way the thing about computers arent random isnt me saying it. Its MIT. Since they have about a thousand times more years experiance dealing technology and modern science then you have, who do you I think I am going to believe."
Dont go throwing around names just because you think its good for your side of the arguement. I admitted that computers are not totally random, but then gave information that demonstrates that for this purpose they are RANDOM ENOUGH. Feel free to ask MIT about this.
"Oh and you want one more definate fact there college boy? 80% of the disks I got were from Incom and KSE"
Great, you get what, 20 disks, and you hold that as proof? Please man dont even waste my time. Thats flipping heads three times in a row while facing south, means that facing south makes the coin show up heads.
As far as finding less of 6/8, if your own theories are correct, you should not have had this problem, having had your inventory full of other REd loot, and having had all the other schematic parts in your inventory.
Your proof is all baseless. Try again.
Also just an FYI - there are random number generators that are good enough cryptograhic strength applications, so dont tell me they cant make one good enough for a simple game. Using the standard rand() operator with a good seed would yeild a random enough result that there would be no feasable way to exploit it.