Jedi Archive
Thread: Official list of common Jedi Board Misconceptions
Xader:
I find no "proof" or "disproof" of anything in the threads you linked. You expect a sampling of < 100 to prove something? Sorry, I must be dense since all I see is a sampling of data that someone tried to analyze, and only came up with numbers indicating that all the original 32 professions came up as holo professions, some more than others.
Uhm, you're going to get some showing up more than others with such a limited data set. Now, I'm not saying it's not "randomly assigned", so don't get me wrong. But these numbers don't prove that it IS randomly assigned. What am I missing?
Lowca_Fatal wrote:
Read
Comprehend
Post
You skipped 1 and 2. Read the **edit** thread kid
I have disproven 4+1, twice
Hey **edit**face.
Here is the thread you were talking about:
http://forums.station.sony.com/swg/board/message?board.id=jedi&message.id=196515&page=1
When you want to make claims back them up. Please note in that thread the CSR told him to submit a bug report. Its previously been claimed that CSRs can check a players progress towards FS, perhaps it is a bug? Can you point me towards the second instance verifying that 4+1 is invalid?
I am one to lean towards the 4+1 theory, but others post some interesting points of view, and i dont keep up with all the Jedi news as some people on this board.
The one thing that is making this extremely difficult is the lack of credible information. How is anyone suppose to analyze anything if you do not know if the test group is or is not contaminated?
I can easily say HEY IM A JEDI and i used1 holo's and mastered only1 profession and did this or that and thats what unlocked my FSS or i used 4 holo's and mastered one profession and got lucky and unlocked my FSS in 5 professions. Its of course a lie(I havent even finished one holo profession), but what is keeping people from posting incorrect or doctored information. and thenother people use this information in theirtheories to back up their point of view.
How many actual Jediare in the game? I know they exist, but how many?Without physically seeing them in game, how are the people verified? that "Official list of Jedi" at the top of the board, who verified the people??
did SOE??
or does it just take a post??
I like the screenshot for proof as a rule, but even this has problems.....has anyone taken a screen shot of every single thing they have done in game? Heck i cant even remember everything i have done back to day 1, i mean i have a pretty good idea, but to tell the truth i cant even tell which profession i chose at character creation, im probably 95% sure it was artisan, but i did go thru a couple templates with Brawler as the start and picking up artisan and medic as soon as i landed on planet. Who's to say the official Jedi remember what they picked and havent just posted their most likely starting profession (in case this could be used for some sort of pattern identifier) and although they are probably correct, what if a couple forgot or forgot something else and replaced that piece of informtion with a best guess....talk about throwing off ideas. What if 30 peoplematcha paticular theory,and5 others dont. does this automaticly eliminate a theory or did the 5 people that dont match not remember something or post incorrect information or just post something to post?
more questions more questions, entertaining and sometimes insiteful reading everyones ideas though.
I am fascinated by how you and Albion have this need for determinism in your lives. You can't find a pattern, but because you believe there is one and because you will not accept otherwise, there MUST therefore be one. Albion insists that he can predict the weather. Literally. And you shout and scream about something you have never seen and cannot reproduce. What the heck is with you guys?
If there is a pattern, and you cannot find it, how does that help the silent holocroners to know what to master next? Do all their identical posts asking for guidence make this forum a better place? Are we getting any closer to opening our slots? Until you find this elusive pattern would it not behoove holocroners to master professions in a logical order rather than "randomly" stabbing at what they hope fits a pattern? Do you dare to answer?
I am beginning to honestly resent you because of how closely you resemble the priests of old, promising salvation if only the lost believe what YOU tell them. You don't KNOW a damned thing.
--Thummp
The only way to "prove" 4+1 would be to start a new character and give him four holocrons. After that character, who does nothing but the professions has completed the four holocron professions, he does one more. If that doesn't open the slot, re-roll and repeat. Yes, that's right, stop there and start over.
Eventually you will either get a character that opens the slot with five (and five only professions) - in which case 4+1 is proven. Or you will have run enough samples that you can be mathematically assured that 5 professions alone is not enough, in which case 4+1 is disproven.
If disproven, then the answer is 4+X,or 4+1+some other factor, or 4+X+some other factor. But at least 4+1 would be proven or disproven.
Remember that most folks, even during their hologrinding, have been to a lot of planets, done a lot of missions, etc. So doing this in a sufficiently controlled manner to eliminate the "other factor" would be extremely difficult.
Now, it seems likely that it is 4+1 from the data set, with the exception of these poorly documented outliers. But truthfully we don't have very good numbers. We have a lot of information about the slots that were opened - maybe for them, X=1. We DON'T have a lot of information on everyone who is out grinding and hasn't opened the slot - maybe for them, X>1.
I happen to believe that 4+1 is correct - possibly because I find it comforting - but it absolutely has not been proven.
Let me start by saying I believe 4+1 is true BUT that still wouldn't prove its 4+1 for everyone. Some could be 4+2. But to the person grinding whether its 4+1 or 4+2 makes no difference really. At some point it will open if they continue to grind.
Lowca_Fatal wrote:Borion_Sunrunner wrote:
Personally, i think you're just trolling the forums. Either that, or you are horribly misinformed and/or mistaken. But I find the former easier to believe than the latter.
Pretty brave to say I'm misinformed when I'm proving your theory wrong.
Sounds like you are attatched to someone else's theory, and too childish and closed minded to ever come up with anything else.
The problem is you haven't PROVEN anything wrong. The guy you quote has not provided ANY proof that what he claims is even remotely true, but we have over 100 people providing clear evidence that supports the 4 + 1 theory. When you have screenshots proving that this guy got Combat Medic as a profession, screenshots proving that he DIDN'T master Combat Medic, and screenshots proving that he got a silent message after STILL not mastering Combat Medic, then we will talk. We've already seen people who have unlocked their slot after doing their last holocron profession, therefore they had already mastered their silent profession and not gotten a silent holocron. The guy you are quoting is full of BS. He's the same type of person who claimed to unlock their FS slot 2 weeks after release.
Thummp wrote:
Albion. You could not be more wrong. Take a physics class and study how subatomic particles behave. Examine what happens when you try to determine the EXACT position of an electron at a certain point in time. Do a search on heisenberg.
A random number generator that seeds off of fan noise is pretty damned random. Or do you think you can predict fan noise? Besides, usually we use the term 'sufficiently random'. Which means you can mimin the fan noise with forum posts, but it still won't reliably tell you how to unlock the slot.
--Thummp
All Heisenber says is that we can't know the position of the electron, not that it does not have a position. Furthermore just because a Fan noise based see contains too many variables for Human capabilities to predict simply means we're dealing with a situation too complicated for our models to handle. Its not random, its just really reallycomplex.
SimianHunter wrote:
We've already seen people who have unlocked their slot after doing their last holocron profession, therefore they had already mastered their silent profession and not gotten a silent holocron.
FYI, those documented people (plus 1 other who i know personally) have unlocked after mastering their 4th holofession, HOWEVER, they had also mastered at least one other profession between the time they opened the 4th holo and its subsequent mastery. Had they had mastered their "silent" profession their 4th holo would have been silent as well.
Out of curiousity, has the process followed by this CM been shown to normally not have this effect? By this, I mean finding out a holocron profession, mastering 1 or more non-specified professions, then checking a holocron again? I would think that it is feasible that, either by design or bug, doing such a thing triggers some part of the code which results in the subsequent check revealing the "silent message," despite having only 3 required professions so far.
If it has not been shown that this is not always the result, then I would claim that this report does not, in fact, disprove the "4+1" theory. It only does if we can ensure that a silent holocron will ONLY result from the mastering of 4 of the needed professions.
Tatho-Corbantis wrote:
Thummp wrote:
Albion. You could not be more wrong. Take a physics class and study how subatomic particles behave. Examine what happens when you try to determine the EXACT position of an electron at a certain point in time. Do a search on heisenberg.
A random number generator that seeds off of fan noise is pretty damned random. Or do you think you can predict fan noise? Besides, usually we use the term 'sufficiently random'. Which means you can mimin the fan noise with forum posts, but it still won't reliably tell you how to unlock the slot.
--Thummp
All Heisenber says is that we can't know the position of the electron, not that it does not have a position. Furthermore just because a Fan noise based see contains too many variables for Human capabilities to predict simply means we're dealing with a situation too complicated for our models to handle. Its not random, its just really reallycomplex.
That's a long, long way from "all Heisenberg said". One of the fundamental ideas is that the more precisely you know the position of a particle, the LESS precisely you will know its momentum, and vice versa. The primary concept to take away is that that all information CANNOT be simultaneously known about a quantum system, and that it is therefore ultimately unpredictable in any specifics... one can only take a statistical approach to a LARGE number of events, the individual ones are unpredictable.
The concept of "if we just know enough, we could predict it" is fundamentally at odds with the Uncertainty Principle. If you want to claim that the universe is wholly and utterly deterministic, feel free... but there will be a LOT of fairly knowledgable folks that will proceed to dismiss you as fundamentally ignorant.
(I'm not saying they are right... I'm just saying that if you want to reject the Uncertainty Principle, be prepared to reject all of quantum mechanics... and all that implies.)
As I mentioned before, either interpretation is fundamentally moot to the discussion at hand. If you cannot make better predictions based on the past outputs you've seen (and the four professions you might see is a pretty *TINY* sample upon which to base your "pattern" guess), then you'd do just as well to simply assume that there is a perfectly random selection process at work, regardless of your view of the universe.
Humans are fond of pattern recognition. But even if you spot some kind of pattern that applies to some small subset of past cases, you'll very likely do no better atPREDICTING the hidden profession of any given person meeting that pattern's prerequisites thanwould a dart-throwing monkey.
Correlation does not equal causality. Accurate predictioncan beextremely difficult, especially when it's about the future. =)
(HINT: That's the only case that matters... not determining what you think someone's pattern WAS... determining what someone's hidden profession WILL BE based on information revealed to date)
Until and unless you can show a one-to-one correspondence between predictions made, and successful outcomes, you might as well call the Psychic Hotline and ask them which is your hidden profession. A one-to-one correlation shows that there is a hard-coded and/or deterministic process at work that drives the outcome, which indicates that the Devs coded it that way.
Anything significantly less than that, and you'll be locked into a system that gets more and more complex as you have to explain away more and more "special cases" with after-the-fact justifications... and hence becomes less and less likely as a method for coding the algorithm.
Lowca_Fatal wrote:
If I see one more post of people assuming 4+1, or one more post of people saying everything is random, will make my head explode
I assume that it is 4+1 Professions.
All of these 5 Professions are chosen randomly. Everything is random.
Hopefully, you will never post again, as your head will have made a very satisfyingnoise when it exploded,much like an over-ripe melon when you drop it.