Development Cycle Archive

Thread: Crafting Critical Failure Rates

Zarathustra
Mon Jan 26, 2004 2:00 pm
#1

I agree with the idea of saving the components, if you fail on a RIS segment, the loot drops don't get destroyed, but you lose the materials that went into them. If you're making a krayt gun, you don't lose the tissue, but the resources.


For most crafters putting their supplies of best resources into these items is punishment enough, losing rare loot drops like krayt pearls is way too much imo. Crit failing on a 5th generation lightsaber is 12 million credits gone on some servers, not very pretty.





~Zarathustra~
~~Founder of Zaracorp Weapons~~
~Etheara Greame~
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~~~Dark Jedi~~~

Trystan1969
Mon Jan 26, 2004 2:01 pm
#2






Renairdor wrote:


On the topic of Crit failures: Try with a perfect crafting kit,perfect crafting station on buff packs. I had far more crit failures (1 in 4, it seemed) then using a non perfect crafting kit. There seems to be some flaw with the 'high end' code where if you pass an amazing success, it would result in a crit failure. I could be wrong, but it just felt this way.


Ren





Buff packs are a bit buggy to begin with.


If you fill up the effectiveness bar with all the experiementation points, then all the points are worth half of what they're suppose to be. Using good materials, I can get a buff pack up to 80%. At start, there's 6 empty experimentation slots in the effectiveness category. If I fill up all 6 slots, a great success will only result in a 21% increase instead of a 42%. In order to fill up all the slots, I have to fill up all but the last 2 slots. I keep doing this until there's only 2 slots left. Then I spend the rest of my points to get it to max.


Akkori
Mon Jan 26, 2004 2:01 pm
#3

It seems like more info is needed, as many people have already suggested. What is the breakdown per profession? What quality Tools/Stations were used? What was the skill level of the testers? Did they experiment one point at a time or in lots of 2, 5, 10? What about the Compexity of the items they were creating? Chem Survey tools and an Adv BLL should have different results. Then there are the "secrets" you guys keep, like how does the quality of resources effect these failure rates? Why is it a Master will fail on Novice level items as much as Master level items? And at the same rate as a Novice crafter? What is the "real" effect of tool/station/crafting module have on crafting?

More, More, MORE!!!



Odano Akkori
First Mayor of Tempest
Jaxian Bay
Elder DE, Rifleman, Swordsman

Jedi will never be a starting profession...Looted items and quest items will never be better then crafted items, this is not a loot based game...CH will return shortly...CH and BE will not be back in game...Rangers are getting their revamp next!...The stealth system will not be changing in the spy expertise...Need any more examples of things the devs said that did not hold true?
Gyopi
Mon Jan 26, 2004 2:04 pm
#4

Have there been any experiments with different grade crafting stations and tools? Do the ratings actually mean anything? I have 14.71 effectiveness tools and a 42.005 rated crafting station. My failure rates have not decreased since I stopped using lesser tools and crafting stations. If anything they have increased! Also, using bioenhenaced tissues seems to greatly increase the chance if a failure for me. Anyway, I am curious about whether this has been looked into. I want to buy another nice crafting station to replace a 32 rated one in my second shop, but I am not sure it makes any difference.








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Betatoxin
Mon Jan 26, 2004 2:06 pm
#5



BlueMorgoth wrote:
One particular issue that I have with it is the cyclic nature of the failures. It appears to have something to do with the way the initial random seed is set up when you log in. Some nights I will start crafting and have no failures for a very long time (ie 4-5 hours of constant crafting) and then suddenly 6 or 7 crit failures on the combine (and most typically on the final combine too, which is the most expensive). I have found that if I continue to craft I will continue to get a horridly high number of crit fails and thus it is not worth my time crafting any more, as I am throwing away more resources than are making it to a final product. Logging out, going away for an hour or so and coming back in will usually alter this behaviour, but if I just log out (all the way, not just disconnect) and the log back in straight away, I continue to have really high failure rates.





Gamblers Fallacy.

You are assuming that because you have failures that occur right after each other that is somehow violating random probability. This is almost certainly not that case. You are simply suffering from the same misconception of probability that almost everyone does. You are assuming a connection between independent events that is not there or that somehow streaks of one outcome or another "mean" something or are breaking the rules.

http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/gamblers-fallacy.html
http://seercom.com/bcs/resources/criticalthinking/hcf.gamblers.html
http://www.fallacyfiles.org/gamblers.html#Reverse

So while it is possible that the PRNG in SWG is somehow out of whack it is far more likely that you are simpling making a very common but incorrect intuitive assumption. How common? There is an entire multi-billion dollar industry and city based around Gamblers Fallacy, its called Las Vegas.
Anruan
Mon Jan 26, 2004 2:07 pm
#6




Please check the impact of lag!


A friend of mine did an experiment where he dragged the same crafting station around to various planets with different amounts of lag and the results were drastically different based on where he crafted. He measured lag in part by seeing how long it takes when clicking on a resource and waiting for it to load in the crafting screen. In general, anytime he could have more then one resource loading at a time, the critical failures where much worse.


I'll tell him about this post so he can provide more detailed information.


-anruan
ThePhilosopher
Mon Jan 26, 2004 2:08 pm
#7

Glad this is being looked into.


4% seems a little too high, especially for some REALLY expensive items.



On a CDEF pistol, it's not that big a deal.


On a 4 pearl, 5th generation Lightsaber, that you spent 2 weeks earning 16 million credits to afford, it is unbearable. It makes you want to quit.






=============== Naamar Sumara ===============

=============== Axis of Blood ===============

=============== Bloodfin ===============

=============== Master of Bantha Fishing ===============

electricnomad
Mon Jan 26, 2004 2:09 pm
#8

How do exceptional success rates compare to critical failure rates? Do they mirror one another?




"We're dedicating a designer (Green Marine) next week to looking into fixing some of the bigger issues of the smuggler. (Yes, we are also looking at issues with the other professions, the smuggler just seems to be the one needing the most love at this moment)." Q-3PO - September 16, 2003
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Phomeister
Mon Jan 26, 2004 2:11 pm
#9

Devs, the problem isn't the critical failure rate in final crafting stage. That rate is fine and it is low.


The real problem is when youstackexperimenting failureson top of the critical failures.


Experimentation success rates seem rather low. Everybody who experiments for 'great' results consider anything other than 'great' or 'amazing'experiment resultsto be a failure. When youadd upall those psudo failures with the general crit failures.. theoverall success rate at making a good productisprobably only around 50%.. maybe less.


Maybe a revamp to the experimentation systemis in order.. It seems to me like anything not fully experimented on is a waste of time, money and isn't very useful. People normally don't buy stuff unless its the best.
Neyland
Mon Jan 26, 2004 2:13 pm
#10

I am a master Doc and a master CM. The critical failure rate on CM product experimentation is through the roof in comparison.



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Xanobia
Mon Jan 26, 2004 2:15 pm
#11

the problem i see with your attempt to produce statistical numbers is that you used the test center, it is a well known fact that the test center uses different coding, which is why its the test center not a live server. If you want to produce accurate results, try doing it on a love server, until a couple weeks ago i was a master docter for 3 months, and buff packs were fine at producing until the later half of my docter experiance, also take to note that i used to have a great success about every 9/10 items made, now its about 1/30 items made, that means that the meager amounts of great avian meat i harvested only made one set of buffs as apposed to the 15 to 20 sets of buffs it used to make. I was using a 42 eff station with a 14.7 crafting tool.



*Xanobia

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DuckMaestro
Mon Jan 26, 2004 2:19 pm
#12

what about "Big Failures" and other failures during the experimental phase?


It seems like the rate inwhich i get experimental failures is much greater than what the risk measurement says when i experiment.


At master medic level (plus CM crafting2) i was crafting some regular medic components... for the i had 8 ticks to experiment in, each one gave me 18% risk.... but i got "big failure" or "critical failure" or "failure"7 out of those 8 experiments. i think it only happens on certain components but ill need to keep a record of this when it happens again i think. ... unless this is normal? im not a crafting expert. This has happened on a few occasions, not just once.


thanks for any info


-duck



- Duck
I give up.
palladiumleader
Mon Jan 26, 2004 2:24 pm
#13

Chrysalide, you're missing a very important point about critical failures in experimentation: almost all items require multiple experimentations to make a good item. If even one of those experimentations is anything less than agreat success, the item's pretty much a bust (destroy it, or maybe toss it up on a special deal vendor). Even if we assume that only critical failures are undesirable, your numbers don't represent the reality of creating quality items.We have no idea how accurateyour study's resultsare since every crafting attempt involves different complexities and tool/station effectiveness. However, going with your probability numbers, and assuming that if at any point during the process one critical failure in assembly or experimentation renders the object useless,here's the probability that resources and timewill be wasted on a CRAFTING attempt:


number of Probability

experiments:of a failure:

0 4.49%

1 8.9%

2 13.3%

317.5%

421.7%


Now, the more times you have to experiment on an item, the more likely it SHOULD be that you get a critical failure, but in many professions you HAVE to experiment that many times on an item to make a quality item. This is why many players are saying that the critical fail rate is more like 1 in 5, because they're getting critical failures on 1 in 5 of the items they attempt to craft.



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