Development Cycle Archive
Thread: Crafting Critical Failure Rates
For example I have some 981 conductivity copper I'm using to make repair tools - using my full 10 experiment points I get to the resource cap of 98.1% effective with just a great sucess but an amazing sucess would also be affected by the cap - so I dont get anything better with an amazing sucess than with a great sucess.
IMO the first problem that needs to be addressed with regard to experimentation is the risk meter need to *accurately* reflect the risk involved.
Then we can talk more about the risk/reward situation.
Now, if we stop right there, and don't do any experimentation, then that is our total chance of critically failing. However, an artisan's job involves experimentation, in order to get the best item possible. So, let's say we have one experimentation point. We go into experimentation, to use that point, and we now have another .96 chance of NOT critically failing. Mathematically, that is expressed by multiply that chance by the previous chance, which is .96 * .96 = .92, or a ( 1 - .92 ) = .08 chance of critically failing.
So as soon as you enter the experimentation screen, you have effectively gone to an 8% chance of critical failure.
At this point, I'm not sure how they are calculating the chances of failure. There are two ways to do it. One is to have an additional 4% chance of failure for each experimentation point used. The other way is to have an additional 4% chance of failure each time you press the bar to tell the experiment to run. From observation, I would tend towards the first possibility. If that is so, then using using five points of experimentation would probably give you a 21.7% chance of critical failure.
( 1 - ( .96 * .96 * .96 * .96 * .96 * .96 ) = 1 - .783 = .217
If you are using ten points of experimentation, then you would have a 36.2% chance of critical failure.
( 1 - ( .96 ) ^ 11 ) = 1 - .638 = .362
This would go along with the observation that people have made, that getting to the master level seems to increase the amount of critical failures that they are getting. It seems to be built into the system, that as your skill increases, your ability to completely screw up something also increases.
This looks to me like a problem with the programming. A person with fewer experimentation points should have the larger chance of failure, and those with more experimentation points should have a smaller chance of failure. In that case, the formula for critical failures should be this, where [EX PTS] is how many experimentation points you have:
( 1 - ( .96 ) ^ ( 11 - [EX PTS] )
Then, if someone has 10 experimentation points, the chance of a critical failure falls only in the initial combine
( 1 - ( .96 ) ^ ( 11 - 10 ) = 1 - .96 = .04
NancyJ wrote:
The biggest problem with this risk vs reward is that there is no way to negotiate your own risk/reward ratio.
I could not agree more. It seems to be the best solution to this problem. Allow us to control the risk. From a minimal risk of 1% (or even no risk at all) with potential for only modest results, to a risk of 10% with a potential for remarkable results.
Players making expensive items such as lightsabers can take the safe route, and make average lightsabers. Those willing to take the risk will have the potential to make far superior items, and reap the benefits of their efforts.
And it would be fun! I would love to stare at may crafting station and agonize over the amount of risk I was about to take with my carefully crafted item.
Also, please leave the risk in! I want my results to be an accomplishment, I don’t want to be spoon fed a risk-free effort every time.
Thunderheart wrote:
Vashner wrote:
Will removing fizzles unbalance SWG and it's economy? NO.. will it threaten people learing crafting professions NO. ...
Then why do we have it?
For the same reason there are critical fails in all games. There is a chance for critical fail and also critical successes. Its a great risk vs reward mechanic. Its game play. Without risk versus reward, there is no "game".
There isn't an RPG out there that doesnt include a chance for failure and "crit fails".
Show me the Game Play Bible that says "You shalt crit fail". It doesn't exist TH. There doesn't *****HAVE****** to be a critical failure on a combination. I don't think you will find an sane person that will say "Oh kewl, I crit failed! This game is AWESOME!".
There are PLENTY of RPGs out there without a critical failure/success mechanism in them.
I'll go back to real life again. Critical failures (total loss of ALL your work irrevocably) don't exist for trivial items in craftsmanship. Throw a pot wrong... /shrug... mash the clay into a ball again and start over.
Critical failure / success however ****IS***** a nice addition for experimentation, but for basic combines on items there really isn't any reason other than tradition for it existing. Some developer in the past threw it in and its stuck ever since. You're stuck in a box and can't think outside of it.
TH:
I think the problem we are having here is what the development team perceives as a "failure" and what the crafter player base perceives. I will go out on a limb and state that I think your numbers regarding critical failures is pretty close to the mark. As an master armorsmith I do get my share of critical failures and sometimes it feels like it's a lot higher than 5%, but when you consider that it's really just a roll of some random number generator anything more than that is usually just bad luck on my part. So overall, 5% really sounds about right for actual "critical failures".
Where the problem begins is that as player crafters, we perceive there are more than one way to have a ruined crafting session than just a critical failure. Maybe I am wrong, but to me a "great success" is the baseline result where everything went right. Moderate successes, successes, good successes...anything less than a great success is in fact a failed attempt.I can't remember which one of you at Sony explained how assembly and experimentation works, but one of you explained that there are multiple areas during assembly and experimentation where an success/failure can occur. I know that I and many of the crafting community have had results (especially during experimentation) where a good or moderate success might improve on stat but actually make another stat worse than before the experimentation attempt. It's these kinds of results that I find happening to me the most often and cause me the most grief. I would love to see what the percentage of less than "great successes" are and if these lesser results fall into what is considered an acceptable range by the development team.
Anyway, to sum it up, there are more ways to fail and ruin an item than just with critical failures. It's these other failures on top of the outright criticals which gives the perception that something is horribly wrong with the failure rates; especially by those who are masters of their craft.
Sumorex wrote:
Thunderheart wrote:
Vashner wrote:Will removing fizzles unbalance SWG and it's economy? NO.. will it threaten people learing crafting professions NO. ...
Then why do we have it?
For the same reason there are critical fails in all games. There is a chance for critical fail and also critical successes. Its a great risk vs reward mechanic. Its game play. Without risk versus reward, there is no "game".There isn't an RPG out there that doesnt include a chance for failure and "crit fails".Show me the Game Play Bible that says "You shalt crit fail". It doesn't exist TH. There doesn't *****HAVE****** to be a critical failure on a combination. I don't think you will find an sane person that will say "Oh kewl, I crit failed! This game is AWESOME!".
There are PLENTY of RPGs out there without a critical failure/success mechanism in them.
I'll go back to real life again. Critical failures (total loss of ALL your work irrevocably) don't exist for trivial items in craftsmanship. Throw a pot wrong... /shrug... mash the clay into a ball again and start over.
Critical failure / success however ****IS***** a nice addition for experimentation, but for basic combines on items there really isn't any reason other than tradition for it existing. Some developer in the past threw it in and its stuck ever since. You're stuck in a box and can't think outside of it.
Well Said!
TH,
Some of the items that you are saying we should discover in game have been proven, through sampling, to not make any difference. This adds to the frustration of issues such as Crit Failures. Just a quick comment.
Hey I got issues with the half-truths in the past, too. But for once we have them actually seeming to talk to us on a regular basis. Can we not keep it civil?
Zarathustra wrote:
...It's horrible to spend all your hard earned money on vibro motors, krayt tissues, pearls, force crystals, etc...only to have a critical failure sending millions of credits down the toilet!
TH, I really wonder if anyone on the Dev team understands or has really experienced this part of the crafting game extensively. I'd like someone on the Dev team to role up a Master Armorsmith and find a group to go camp the Woolamander temple for3 daysand wait to get a hide, then go to Lok and kill 400 G. Dune Kimos for a scale, and wait 3 months for the vendusii ore to spawn and then go and Crit Fail on the RIS boots. NOt to mention getting the Gurk Hide or albatross feather. Not fun...
How can blowing krayt tissues on a T21 be fun? How is having someone give you 15 40% krayt segments for armor and then crit failing on the chestplate enhance the game? "Sorry, I know I'm a master armorsmith, but I just ruined the chestplate. I'm sorry I just lost a million credits for you". How can spending 20 million on the krayt pearls for a Jedi and crit failing be fun? Especially when you have to craft a new lightsaber every week or so. I thought the FAQ specifically said that Jedi would "have the ability to repair and maintain their lightsaber". I'm positive I read that at one point in the pre-launch Jedi FAQ. As far as I'm concerned a lightsaber should be a Jedi's 'baby'. They should only ever HAVE to craft one.
I can see keeping the experimentation crit fails (but the rate needs to be looked at like we are saying), but this crit fail on assembly is just rediculous. Its not fun, it makes people mad, and in certain cases like the rediculous RIS quest, it could be game ending.
Arrya wrote:
Uggg, whatever you do - for god sakes, don't turn this game into World of Warcraft! SWG has the basis for one of the best crafting systems in MMOGs out there, it just needs a few tweaks.
Never said they should. Relax, just giving Thunderheart a hard time.
On second thought...
StarchMonkey wrote:
Zarathustra wrote:
...It's horrible to spend all your hard earned money on vibro motors, krayt tissues, pearls, force crystals, etc...only to have a critical failure sending millions of credits down the toilet!
TH, I really wonder if anyone on the Dev team understands or has really experienced this part of the crafting game extensively. I'd like someone on the Dev team to role up a Master Armorsmith and find a group to go camp the Woolamander temple for3 daysand wait to get a hide, then go to Lok and kill 400 G. Dune Kimos for a scale, and wait 3 months for the vendusii ore to spawn and then go and Crit Fail on the RIS boots. NOt to mention getting the Gurk Hide or albatross feather. Not fun...
How can blowing krayt tissues on a T21 be fun? How is having someone give you 15 40% krayt segments for armor and then crit failing on the chestplate enhance the game? "Sorry, I know I'm a master armorsmith, but I just ruined the chestplate. I'm sorry I just lost a million credits for you". How can spending 20 million on the krayt pearls for a Jedi and crit failing be fun? Especially when you have to craft a new lightsaber every week or so. I thought the FAQ specifically said that Jedi would "have the ability to repair and maintain their lightsaber". I'm positive I read that at one point in the pre-launch Jedi FAQ. As far as I'm concerned a lightsaber should be a Jedi's 'baby'. They should only ever HAVE to craft one.
I can see keeping the experimentation crit fails (but the rate needs to be looked at like we are saying), but this crit fail on assembly is just rediculous. Its not fun, it makes people mad, and in certain cases like the rediculous RIS quest, it could be game ending.