Armorsmith Archive
Thread: CURB Resource Number-Crunching
Arialias
Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:23 am
#53
Blixtev wrote:
Brutus_Krylop wrote:
It's late and I can't sleep, so what better way to pass the time than by doing some number crunching on the new armor schematics as provided by NiBorg. I'm going to assume that even with the new layering system, the advantages of quad-layering will be such that quad-layered advanced armor will be the norm for maxxed-out combatants.
Some general observations:
- With the exceptions of the Kashyyykian Wookiee armors and the Ithorian Defender (Battle) armor, all equivalent-level suits ofarmor (basic/standard/advanced) will require the same aggregate number of organic and inorganicresources.
- Under the new system, a single suit of Advanced Assault, Battle, or Recon Armorwill require 1580 organic resource units. This is 14.5% of the total resource requirements.
Currently, a single suit of Advanced Composite requires 210 creature-harvested resources, or 4.3% of the total. The new system triples the influence of creature-harvested resources, and the numerical increaseis 652%.
However, a suit of Advanced Padded currently requires 1515 organic resource units, meaning a numericalincrease of 4%. Furthermore, a suit of Advanced Kashyyykian Hunting Armor currently requires941 creature-harvested organic resources, while a suit of any Wookiee armor in the new system will require 1540 creature-harvested organic resources, for an increase of 64%.
- Under the new system, excluding tailored panels and cloths, the aggregate resource requirement for a maximum factory production of 29 suits of quadruple-energy-layered advanced armor is 376,445 resource units. Currently, a maximum factory run of46 suits of triple-energy-layered advanced composite requires 225,262 resource units. So, we will be able to make 63% of the armor for 167% ofthe resources.
The last bullet point above is the crux of the problem, and it means one of two things -- either we must accept a serious reduction in our earnings potential, or the price of armor will skyrocket. Why? Follow along.
Let's assume that I currently charge 350,000-credits per full suit of armor. If I can make 46 suits in a "run," and assuming all 46 suits sold in a timely fashion, I can expect 16.1 Million credits ofincome from the resources, time, and effort.
Post-CURB, my income needs will not change -- I still have to pay maintenance, buy resources, fund my spice habits, and all other manner of in-game needs. If anything, they would likely increase, but for the purposes of this exercise, we'll assume that they won't. Furthermore, my rational expectation is that my net earnings potential will remain constant. Thus, I must restructure my prices so that I realize the same profit for my resources, time, and effort that I earned in the previous system -- I must convert that 16.1Mcr.
Because I am now using 67% more resources for the same effect, I can multiply my price by 1.67, but this assumes that all resources are equal in value. (Clearly they are not -- the added organic and rare resource requirements should easily increase the 1.67multiplier.) Due to the changed system, I am now also less productive with my time and resources, as I can only make 63% of my previous stock for the same effort. (Thisassumes that the total factory times for a "run" remain relatively constant from the old system to the new.) To retain the same "hourly wage," I divide my price by 0.63.
Having now accounted for the increased resources and decreased productivity, we see that in order for me to retain the same earning potential in the new system as in the old, I must increase my price by 265%. For the hypothetical 350,000-credit suit, the new CURB price becomes 927,778-credits. Again, the new price does not even take into account the anticipated increased per-unit resource costs or the likely increase in factory time and shop overhead if one wishes to maintain a well-rounded shop, so it is entirely likely that the price could rise even further.
Are we likely to seethe price of post-CURB armor almost triple the current level over the long run? I doubt the market will bear it. An increase of 50-100% is much more likely. What thismeansis that our earning potential as armorsmiths will take a significant hit, as we'll be forced to eat the costs of decreased productivity.
Just my sleep-deprived ramblings.
Excellent post, I cut the number of organics in half on cores and final appearance combines, should make it to TC today or tommorrow.
Glad to see you make a decision on our feedback. Sure I would like it to be less but we will see how this works out. But one thing I would like to ask you. Who is going to get us these resources?
Rangers usually did this type of work. But seeing as they have been given no consideration whatsoever in this revamp. They will be severely gimped from the getgo. They will be solely dependent on there combat only skills for there HAM and there player con level. What this means is they will be limited to only harvesting things based off one combat profession. As I take it that will only make them a max level 40 player. They will not be able to harvest resources off anything of a higher level I was on dant last nite and even Pickets were conning 43 to me. And the lizards were conning 53. No way a master ranger will stand a chance to go out harvest these resources. If they do they will have to be in a high level grp. and more then likely they will want a piece of the pie. The pie that is paid by me and in the end is paid by the customer who wants all this shiny new armor.
One of the things that many people beleived is that the economy was way off tilt. And it seemed that SOE was trying to do things to curb this and bring prices down on things. The solo grp nerf was one of the things that comes to mind. With the way things are now armor will cost more then 4 times as much as it does today. And the customers will do nothng but yell at is as to why our new armor is costing so much. And we will have other option but to direct there attention to your Forum acct name and have you explain to them these changes. To make matters easier do you have a emial addy at SOE that we could have as contacting members thru the forums can be hard to times. I would be happy to pass that on as well.
NiBorg
Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:23 am
#54
The #1 reason why current armor costs as much as it doesit due to the cost of hides. Ruleing out resource deeds pretending they never existed since they are an unstable platform to use for determining costs I have paid as much as 300cpu for hides and some other AS's on Bria have paid 350+ while the hides were still in shift. Once the shifts were over prices went even higher.
There will always be a profit margin, there has to be. When I was still in full production I sold 80k/67-68base full grinding suits for around 300k. The profit is directly tied to time spent gathering/purchasing the best possible resources you were capable of getting and the time spent experimenting to get the best results. If I did a workup at current costs to myself should I pay for each and every resource my profit is only somewhere around 40k per full suit after you account for EVERYTHING involved in the process.
VemaGara
Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:26 am
#55
Here's a big question: how much will resource quality matter?
In the current system, resources are the difference between a 10% protection and an 80% protection. That's a big deal. Now, how big is the spread in the new system? Is the final difference between a 500 quality resource and a 1000 quality resource the difference between 0% and 30% protection, 15% and 30% percent protection, or 25% and 30% protection? How much do experimentation and resources actually matter in the final equation?
If the top resources only make a 1% difference in the final outcome, the pool of acceptable resources will be larger, and the upward pressure minimized. If the top resource make a 10% difference, then the pool of resources will be smaller, and upward pressure will increase. If the player base makes a big deal of 3000 armor vs 3001 armor, then any pricing insanity is their own fault.
In the current system, resources are the difference between a 10% protection and an 80% protection. That's a big deal. Now, how big is the spread in the new system? Is the final difference between a 500 quality resource and a 1000 quality resource the difference between 0% and 30% protection, 15% and 30% percent protection, or 25% and 30% protection? How much do experimentation and resources actually matter in the final equation?
If the top resources only make a 1% difference in the final outcome, the pool of acceptable resources will be larger, and the upward pressure minimized. If the top resource make a 10% difference, then the pool of resources will be smaller, and upward pressure will increase. If the player base makes a big deal of 3000 armor vs 3001 armor, then any pricing insanity is their own fault.
Nitwit
Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:26 am
#56
salvestrom wrote:
You neglected to note your actual profit. Plus your expectation of your profit remaining constant is pure greed, given that the earning power of everyone else will go down. I do not believe that the amount of money attainable in a buff set running missions, even with an At-St, will be as high after the CURB.
Why do you think your profit margin shouldn't take a hit with the CU? Why must you make the same after as you do now? This is no different than a doctor/swordsman complaining that they won't be able to solo krayts after the CU. It's just about what you are losing, and not how the game as a whole will improve/be affected.
You may, perhaps, want to point out that I'll need a suit of armour, and it's in my own interest to ensure the price is kept down... well, maybe it is... but I won't be blaming SoE for a sky-rocketing economy. Just so you know...
Maybe I'm wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.
Salvestrom
Dude, the armor prof is going to get hit big in the CU. The aggregate demand of armor is going to hit the floor because it provides little protection now. If you attack something 4 lvls below you, then the creature fails to output enough damage to warrent purchasing armor. If you attack something your lvl, then the armor only provides a 10-40% resist (depending on what cert armor you have). This can be fixed by just bactashot'in yourself more often. And finally, if you attack anything 3 lvls above you, you get owned so quick, the armor fails to give you an advantage and isnot worth the price.
And for you econ people, what happens to price when demand decrease? Oh yeah - the price increases.
Profits, what are those? If I was an armorsmith, i'd just be worried about breaking even 
xtxShifter
Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:36 am
#57
JangoFett100 wrote:
Still too many. Cut more.
Blixtev wrote:
Excellent post, I cut the number of organics in half on cores and final appearance combines, should make it to TC today or tommorrow.
Pfffft. Kwitcherbichin.
Try Shipwright and you'll see why your not getting any sympathy.
MataHairy
Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:37 am
#58
Blix???
Please check out why we need a similar reduction in resources for the new BE meds:
http://forums.station.sony.com/swg/board/message?board.id=doctor&message.id=88327
Thanks!
Rinviero
Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:40 am
#59
MadDog36 wrote:
TK + anything else for the Win!
QFE - I think that may be what the devs are trying to push....
JangoFett100
Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:41 am
#60
xtxShifter wrote:
JangoFett100 wrote:
Still too many. Cut more.
Blixtev wrote:
Excellent post, I cut the number of organics in half on cores and final appearance combines, should make it to TC today or tommorrow.
Pfffft. Kwitcherbichin.
Try Shipwright and you'll see why your not getting any sympathy.
UMMMM, Last I checked shipwright uses ZERO organics. Even once Blix makes the cuts he mentioned we will still be using in the mid 400's per suit. Compared to padded that might be low, but for us composite producers, it still seems a bit high. And at an average cost of 100cpu the hide alone will still cost us over 40K.
UmmonPrime
Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:42 am
#61
Points to sig.... and you have what to say?
xtxShifter wrote:
JangoFett100 wrote:
Still too many. Cut more.
Blixtev wrote:
Excellent post, I cut the number of organics in half on cores and final appearance combines, should make it to TC today or tommorrow.
Pfffft. Kwitcherbichin.
Try Shipwright and you'll see why your not getting any sympathy.
NiBorg
Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:44 am
#62
xtxShifter wrote:
Pfffft. Kwitcherbichin.
Try Shipwright and you'll see why your not getting any sympathy.
Don’t get me wrong I was horrified when I saw the volume of resources needed for that profession. However you don’t use any organics at all and to be honest armor is a little smaller than a space ship.
Sehera
Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:45 am
#63
any chance we see a 300% increase in storage room then????
Blixtev wrote:
Brutus_Krylop wrote:
It's late and I can't sleep, so what better way to pass the time than by doing some number crunching on the new armor schematics as provided by NiBorg. I'm going to assume that even with the new layering system, the advantages of quad-layering will be such that quad-layered advanced armor will be the norm for maxxed-out combatants.
Some general observations:
- With the exceptions of the Kashyyykian Wookiee armors and the Ithorian Defender (Battle) armor, all equivalent-level suits ofarmor (basic/standard/advanced) will require the same aggregate number of organic and inorganicresources.
- Under the new system, a single suit of Advanced Assault, Battle, or Recon Armorwill require 1580 organic resource units. This is 14.5% of the total resource requirements.
Currently, a single suit of Advanced Composite requires 210 creature-harvested resources, or 4.3% of the total. The new system triples the influence of creature-harvested resources, and the numerical increaseis 652%.
However, a suit of Advanced Padded currently requires 1515 organic resource units, meaning a numericalincrease of 4%. Furthermore, a suit of Advanced Kashyyykian Hunting Armor currently requires941 creature-harvested organic resources, while a suit of any Wookiee armor in the new system will require 1540 creature-harvested organic resources, for an increase of 64%.
- Under the new system, excluding tailored panels and cloths, the aggregate resource requirement for a maximum factory production of 29 suits of quadruple-energy-layered advanced armor is 376,445 resource units. Currently, a maximum factory run of46 suits of triple-energy-layered advanced composite requires 225,262 resource units. So, we will be able to make 63% of the armor for 167% ofthe resources.
The last bullet point above is the crux of the problem, and it means one of two things -- either we must accept a serious reduction in our earnings potential, or the price of armor will skyrocket. Why? Follow along.
Let's assume that I currently charge 350,000-credits per full suit of armor. If I can make 46 suits in a "run," and assuming all 46 suits sold in a timely fashion, I can expect 16.1 Million credits ofincome from the resources, time, and effort.
Post-CURB, my income needs will not change -- I still have to pay maintenance, buy resources, fund my spice habits, and all other manner of in-game needs. If anything, they would likely increase, but for the purposes of this exercise, we'll assume that they won't. Furthermore, my rational expectation is that my net earnings potential will remain constant. Thus, I must restructure my prices so that I realize the same profit for my resources, time, and effort that I earned in the previous system -- I must convert that 16.1Mcr.
Because I am now using 67% more resources for the same effect, I can multiply my price by 1.67, but this assumes that all resources are equal in value. (Clearly they are not -- the added organic and rare resource requirements should easily increase the 1.67multiplier.) Due to the changed system, I am now also less productive with my time and resources, as I can only make 63% of my previous stock for the same effort. (Thisassumes that the total factory times for a "run" remain relatively constant from the old system to the new.) To retain the same "hourly wage," I divide my price by 0.63.
Having now accounted for the increased resources and decreased productivity, we see that in order for me to retain the same earning potential in the new system as in the old, I must increase my price by 265%. For the hypothetical 350,000-credit suit, the new CURB price becomes 927,778-credits. Again, the new price does not even take into account the anticipated increased per-unit resource costs or the likely increase in factory time and shop overhead if one wishes to maintain a well-rounded shop, so it is entirely likely that the price could rise even further.
Are we likely to seethe price of post-CURB armor almost triple the current level over the long run? I doubt the market will bear it. An increase of 50-100% is much more likely. What thismeansis that our earning potential as armorsmiths will take a significant hit, as we'll be forced to eat the costs of decreased productivity.
Just my sleep-deprived ramblings.
Excellent post, I cut the number of organics in half on cores and final appearance combines, should make it to TC today or tommorrow.
Helstrum
Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:46 am
#64
One way or another, I think AS's are looking at a earnings reduction.
Your costs (time and material) are going up.
Your demand over long term (will have an initial spike in demand) will drop because intent is to make armor not "required" to play.
Player base earnings will be going down. Creatures will be more difficult to kill, take more time, and therefore the loot market will be highly variable.
It does suck to not make as much as you used to, but you can survive on less income. The market and production forces will reach a balance given a little time.
Your costs (time and material) are going up.
Your demand over long term (will have an initial spike in demand) will drop because intent is to make armor not "required" to play.
Player base earnings will be going down. Creatures will be more difficult to kill, take more time, and therefore the loot market will be highly variable.
It does suck to not make as much as you used to, but you can survive on less income. The market and production forces will reach a balance given a little time.