Armorsmith Archive
Thread: CURB Resource Number-Crunching
MrGouda
Wed Apr 13, 2005 11:56 am
#15
Excellent post, I've also been doing similar economic evaluations as well. Here's more to think about in the bigger picture.
One thing your post neglects toaddress is the supply/demand aspect of the new world order. This is much more difficult to pen numbers to.
If we can only make 63% of the suits per unit time that we currently can, DEMANDMUST SKYROCKET. Further given our addicted-composite-armor population factors, EVERY PROFESSION BUTFOUR will be needing new armor DEMAND MUST SKYROCKET based on the system the devs have designed.
Add to that some armorsmiths are/will be dropping AS even if temporarily to gather resources before getting back in and play in the new CU world, there's another reason prices will inflate. More fuel to the fire is the Rangers are scre#ed with skill points, non-combat status and low health, and can't wear the uber assault armors (if I recall). Their collective production for us (not to mention we're now competing with BE's for hides to supply the docs)will go down.
All of these factors, and I'm sure I'm missing some, have been createdfor us. Yahoo! hang on folks we're in for a big ride.
Supply down + Demand High = phenominal pricing and profit and frustration for armorsmiths, while we learn and optimize our manufacturing strategy (and twiddle our thumbs collecting resources).
All I can say is it will be a wonderful world for us TK's (I'm MAS/TKM). That's the profession to be until this all shakes out.
Comments?
Sineya
Wed Apr 13, 2005 1:01 pm
#16
Helstrum wrote:
One way or another, I think AS's are looking at a earnings reduction.
Your costs (time and material) are going up.
Your demand over long term (will have an initial spike in demand) will drop because intent is to make armor not "required" to play.
Player base earnings will be going down. Creatures will be more difficult to kill, take more time, and therefore the loot market will be highly variable.
It does suck to not make as much as you used to, but you can survive on less income. The market and production forces will reach a balance given a little time.
I do agree a decrease in incomes is very likely to occur, but as you said all players are likely to see their incomes decrease, this typically mean there will be a deflation of the currency : 100k credits after the CU will be worth more than 100k 6 months ago (especially before the solo groups missions reward nerf where the part of team members out of range would not go to the others).
While this deflation won't make up for the net overall decrease it'll surely make it reality smaller than the numbers look like.
Pseudopd
Wed Apr 13, 2005 1:01 pm
#17
VemaGara wrote:
Here's a big question: how much will resource quality matter?
In the current system, resources are the difference between a 10% protection and an 80% protection. That's a big deal. Now, how big is the spread in the new system? Is the final difference between a 500 quality resource and a 1000 quality resource the difference between 0% and 30% protection, 15% and 30% percent protection, or 25% and 30% protection? How much do experimentation and resources actually matter in the final equation?
If the top resources only make a 1% difference in the final outcome, the pool of acceptable resources will be larger, and the upward pressure minimized. If the top resource make a 10% difference, then the pool of resources will be smaller, and upward pressure will increase. If the player base makes a big deal of 3000 armor vs 3001 armor, then any pricing insanity is their own fault.
This is a VERY valid question!
Many opinions are based on the old style when the new CURB would be different across the board. The HAM ratios are changed, the buffs changed, the heals changed...and armor would have to change.
Does anyone have some hard compare and contrast stats of the old combat and the new CURB ratios?
One can say, in the CURB, I cant make armor with 80% protection anymore. But in CURB, is the old 80% now the same as the new 10% in the sliding scale? The new armor stats and resources are part of the whole puzzle of the CURB and universal balance is the key.
Baz Pseudopod
Ajo79
Wed Apr 13, 2005 1:05 pm
#18
Hide is the tricky part. Increaseing the hide requirements in the schematic makes it hard for starting/upcoming AS to get a little foothold. Hide is also a pain to get and have a large stack off.
I think the Current composite Armor wooly hide reqs are ok. They could be a little higher, but it shouldn't be nowhere as much hide as in the Padded Armor. Also, the padded armor should be remade so it's hide reqs are lower.
NiBorg
Wed Apr 13, 2005 1:06 pm
#19
Pseudopd wrote:
VemaGara wrote:
Here's a big question: how much will resource quality matter?
In the current system, resources are the difference between a 10% protection and an 80% protection. That's a big deal. Now, how big is the spread in the new system? Is the final difference between a 500 quality resource and a 1000 quality resource the difference between 0% and 30% protection, 15% and 30% percent protection, or 25% and 30% protection? How much do experimentation and resources actually matter in the final equation?
If the top resources only make a 1% difference in the final outcome, the pool of acceptable resources will be larger, and the upward pressure minimized. If the top resource make a 10% difference, then the pool of resources will be smaller, and upward pressure will increase. If the player base makes a big deal of 3000 armor vs 3001 armor, then any pricing insanity is their own fault.
This is a VERY valid question!
Many opinions are based on the old style when the new CURB would be different across the board. The HAM ratios are changed, the buffs changed, the heals changed...and armor would have to change.
Does anyone have some hard compare and contrast stats of the old combat and the new CURB ratios?
One can say, in the CURB, I cant make armor with 80% protection anymore. But in CURB, is the old 80% now the same as the new 10% in the sliding scale? The new armor stats and resources are part of the whole puzzle of the CURB and universal balance is the key.
Baz Pseudopod
Best way I can think of is to wear a suit and get attacked then figure out the % the armor blocked. Obviously this might change some since your armor "fits" better at master with the mitigation as I recall reading.
Kelloch
Wed Apr 13, 2005 1:10 pm
#20
Nitwit wrote:Dude, the armor prof is going to get hit big in the CU. The aggregate demand of armor is going to hit the floor because it provides little protection now. If you attack something 4 lvls below you, then the creature fails to output enough damage to warrent purchasing armor. If you attack something your lvl, then the armor only provides a 10-40% resist (depending on what cert armor you have). This can be fixed by just bactashot'in yourself more often. And finally, if you attack anything 3 lvls above you, you get owned so quick, the armor fails to give you an advantage and is not worth the price.
And for you econ people, what happens to price when demand decrease? Oh yeah - the price increases.
Profits, what are those? If I was an armorsmith, i'd just be worried about breaking even
I'd like to learn more about the affect of armor in the CU...but maybe that is another thread.
Sineya
Wed Apr 13, 2005 1:12 pm
#21
JangoFett100 wrote:
Sineya wrote:
Blixtev wrote:
Excellent post, I cut the number of organics in half on cores and final appearance combines, should make it to TC today or tommorrow.
Thanks Blix, I'm really glad you're paying close attention to our concerns and most of all actually taking them into account in your design decisions... I'm quite surprised though, to be honest, that you seem to be able to take these kind of decisions alone, so fast and put them up on test server a day or two later.
Don't these kind of decisions that have a tremendous effect on the whole economy (everyone buys an armor set on a regular basis) get discussed with producers and other "virtual economy gurus" ? Or are you really playing around with these numbers alone, while another designer is playing with the combat special mods for instance ? Or has this particular issue actually been discussed in the past days by the team and you took advantage of the opportunity offered by this study to announce it in a "perfect timing/coincidence situation" ?
Exactly the point I was attempting to make in another thread just now.
Care to point me to that thread of yours ?
Not out of "closed-mindness" or anything by I do enjoy once in a while reading people who think the same as me Anyways just wanted to make myself even more clear here, not trying to direspect or somehow make an allusion that I don't trust in the competence of a given person, it's just anything regarding armor seems to me to have a big effect on SWG and just can't be left between the hands of one person no matter how skilled and insightful that person is. Other people here and in real life in general help me see a new facet of the same object even though my initial sight isn't flawed, another point of view often proves to be mandotary to get the "global picture".
Brutus_Krylop
Wed Apr 13, 2005 1:13 pm
#22
Some general replies to the replies ...
- As I said in my first post, the reduced supply (63% of the numerical supply for 167% of the raw material) is the real problem at hand. All other things being equal, the post-CURB supply rate (product per resource)will be 38% of the pre-CURB supply rate.
- If demand for armor were vertically inelastic (it's not), we would be able to pass along the entire supply cost increase. That's where the 927,728-credit figure came from.
- The 265% cost increase is real, and only the market will determine where it is distributed whendemandthe new supply and demand stabilize. I think we can safely guarantee that armorsmiths will notaccept a62%earnings decrease, as the new economic profit of armor crafting / sales would be overshadowed by the opportunitycost of other craftingor combat professions. Therefore, armor prices will and must rise.
- My entire gedankenexperiment was predicated on crafting only one type of armor -- increased stock variety demands greater storage and labor, which will drive up supply costs even more.
- In the end, what everything boils down to is fun. It's the whole point of playing a game (at least it is for me and most other folks). Radically reduced earnings potential combined with an oversimplified crafting system and new, burdensome resource requirements are not fun.
** Edit -- I forgot the word "not" in regards to the 62% earnings decrease. **
Message Edited by Brutus_Krylop on 04-13-2005 03:17 PM
speardancer
Wed Apr 13, 2005 1:17 pm
#24
Blixtev wrote:
Excellent post, I cut the number of organics in half on cores and final appearance combines, should make it to TC today or tommorrow.
How about we drop them from the cores, and leave the 'final appearance' at the original levels?
The organics have no place in the core anyways, and due to the multiple cores used in a single piece of armor, it multiplies out quickly.
ManSquatch
Wed Apr 13, 2005 1:27 pm
#25
Brutus: Simply a Great Constructive post.
Do you have ideas on how we can effectively lobby to reduce the time sink factor of the new system and how we can get our beloved complexity back into the experimentation system? (Not looking for a particular aspect, just want it back to having 3 or more lines so you can get a variety of results rather that just maxing one line.)
I would love to see a constuctive thread along those lines so we can find workable solutions to some of these issues. I just wish I was not at the climax of RL wedding planning right now or I would put the time into this that it deserves.
Keep up the good work guys.
Rypht
Wed Apr 13, 2005 1:35 pm
#26
Blixtev wrote:
Excellent post, I cut the number of organics in half on cores and final appearance combines, should make it to TC today or tommorrow.
This is a great start, ultimately we need it reduced by about 2/3, its still an awful lot and with thepoorly implementedlevel based system, you guys have crippled those who we rely upon to bring in the hides, rangers aren't getting any combat level advantage so it will be even more difficult and costly to get hides now. Even if you guys kept things the same as the "unbroken" armorsmith system we have now prices would still go up. Now with the newly developed "Broken" system, its just gonna get worse. You guys may want to drastically increase the amount of money people earn doing missions, they're gonna need it.