Smuggler Archive

That's not what I mean...I don't mean the % of the slice but predicting the greatest probability of what slice will be next

I know what you mean Vevy, but it is STILL completely random.

Just because you get 4 speed slices in a row, doesn't make the next slice anymore likely to be anything....it's still a 50/50

I think about it in terms of dice...just because you rolled 3 sixes in a row doesn't make the next die roll any less likely to be a six.

ok so far I've only done 107 slices...I'm gonna do a few hundred more to make these numbers more accurate but so far it's interesting...

out of that 107 slices they broke into 52 "group"...with a group being a run of one type of slice (speed or damage), then breaking into the other. For instance 2 speed slices followed by 1 damage slice == 1 "group"

...and vice versa.

Now out of those 52 groups, only 15 of them had 3 or more slices of the same type before it broke the run.

So that tells me, based on this limited test so far, that 28% of your slices will break away from the 50/50 probability and start forming runs of 3 or more of the same slice.

Out of those 15 errant runs, 9 of them went 3 runs of one slice, then broke. Which means if you want a damage slice, and you get 3 speed slices in a row, you hve a 60% chance of the next slice being a damage slice...but 60% is still not too good IMHO so I went further...

Out of those 52 "groups", 6 of them had runs of 4 or more which is 11%. Out of those 6, 3 broke and 3 kept going.

I had 3 groups out of 52 go into runs of 5 or more of one slice of which only 1 went to 6...and none went to 7 in a row.

So I would need a math major to look over those numbers to come up with the exact %'s cause my math gets a little fuzzy at this point...but it seems once you get 4 runs of a certain slice in a row, you have a much higher chance of having the run break into the opposite slice

Naturally it's not perfect because it is random, but I've tested it on 5 weaps and 4 out of 5 came up with the slice I was trying to get.

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Carnage43 wrote:

I know what you mean Vevy, but it is STILL completely random.

Just because you get 4 speed slices in a row, doesn't make the next slice anymore likely to be anything....it's still a 50/50

I think about it in terms of dice...just because you rolled 3 sixes in a row doesn't make the next die roll any less likely to be a six.

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yes it does, the law of avgs...the more times you roll a 6 in a row, the higher the probability the next roll WON'T be a 6

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Vevy wrote:

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Carnage43 wrote:

I know what you mean Vevy, but it is STILL completely random.

Just because you get 4 speed slices in a row, doesn't make the next slice anymore likely to be anything....it's still a 50/50

I think about it in terms of dice...just because you rolled 3 sixes in a row doesn't make the next die roll any less likely to be a six.

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yes it does, the law of avgs...the more times you roll a 6 in a row, the higher the probability the next roll WON'T be a 6

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Hate to break it to you but that is not the way it works. Mathematically your odds on any given roll of the dice are the same 1:6. You could get really really really lucky and roll a million 6s in a row and your odds on rolling another 6 will still be 1:6 and not 1:million. Many people get the odds confused of rolling a 6 multiple times in a row and the odds of each individual roll.

your over thinking this problem. Try a hundred coin flips and you'll see what I'm talking about. I think thats a better way of explaing since dice have six possibilities and coins have 2. There will allways be a more dominant group and you may get runs.

I think the coin flip is a better explanation...but for what I'm suggesting

with coin flips the law of avgs will always be trying to balance the flips out to a 50/50 split

so even though each flip is still only a 50% chance, the more times you flip heads in a row, increases the probability that tails will flip next

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Vevy wrote:

I think the coin flip is a better explanation...but for what I'm suggesting

with coin flips the law of avgs will always be trying to balance the flips out to a 50/50 split

so even though each flip is still only a 50% chance, the more times you flip heads in a row, increases the probability that tails will flip next

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And trust me, as a math major, when I say that there is absolutely no way to even make the odds lean slightly towards one way or the other if it's truly random (except for some tiny, miniscule probability associated with the fact that it can't really be random, but for all intents and purposes...).

It doesn't matter if you've had six encumbrance slices or seven, the next slice has the exact same odds of being effectiveness or encumbrance. You might as well be spinning around in a circle wearing your lucky form-fitting undershirt and yelling "I am the Bantha king!" because that has the same chances of "guaranteeing" you the right slice.

I always tell my customers to hold their breath, stand on their right foot(for speed,effectiveness) ,left (for damage , encumberance).