Shipwright Archive
Thread: Firespray discs statistics or bad luck?
Brilyn wrote:
Assuming that every RE event has the same chance of getting you a Fragment, then you are better off going for RE 1 stuff, than (say) RE10.
The number of *items* is irrelevant. Only the number of RE *events*.
For example:
1500 RE 1 items will be 1500 RE events.
1500 RE 10 Items will be 150 RE events.
Yes, level 1 items are the most "attempt efficient" way to RE stuff, but I generally go for the most "cost efficient" way.
"Cost efficient" because it uses up all the loot regardless of level since my time is spent harvesting the loot myself. I generally go out and loot stuff until I have 300-400 items on my vendor. Then I do a sort by name and take care of all the quick matches. Once the name sorts are done I sort by type and go about matching levels until I can't do that any more. What's left over is saved until next time.
Sadly, I don't think I've ever looted a disc from anything higher than RE level 3 but I still do it because the odds of popping a disc out are the same. Since I get more level 1-3 matches than level 4+ matches, it's easy to understand that there are a lot fewer "attempts" which would explain the lesser chances overall of providing a disc.
-- A6
ArianSix wrote:
I'm curious about the drop rates others have been getting on firespray discs.
My drop rate has been about 1 disc per 125 items (not RE's but items going in). I currently have 21 discs.
Now the weird part. Of these 21 discs, I have 1 disc 3 and 0 disc 6's. Being that you'd expect roughly a 1:8 chance of getting any disc, you'd think I'd have at least 1full set by now.
On the flip side, I met a SW who was having a hard time getting a 5, so I traded him 2 of them for 2 discs I already had to get him on his way.
So I was wondering... are you guys finding weird statical anamolies like this and are you having a hard time getting any particular discs? (like 6 for me and 5 for that other guy)
Oh, and if any of you Bloodfin SW have an extra disc 6, I have dupes of 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, and 8!
-- A6
im averaging over the last two weeks 1 in 250. before that i was getting around 1 in 75 so i guess its just the law of averages catching up to me ![]()
its random. but about .5% chance per RE.
Brilyn wrote:
Assuming that every RE event has the same chance of getting you a Fragment, then you are better off going for RE 1 stuff, than (say) RE10.
The number of *items* is irrelevant. Only the number of RE *events*.
For example:
1500 RE 1 items will be 1500 RE events.
1500 RE 10 Items will be 150 RE events.
SSSnuggles wrote:
Brilyn wrote:Assuming that every RE event has the same chance of getting you a Fragment, then you are better off going for RE 1 stuff, than (say) RE10.The number of *items* is irrelevant. Only the number of RE *events*.For example:1500 RE 1 items will be 1500 RE events.1500 RE 10 Items will be 150 RE events.That is not necessarily a true assumption though, it would have been trivial to have it be linked to the number of items RE'ed (as opposed to treating any number of items as a single event) with a simple multiplicative to the probability function.
Right, this is not necessarily a true assumption. But so far I have not seen any evidence, contradicting this assumption. Which means, either nobody made test in this regards so far, or there is no effect of the RE level on probability.
The difference between RE level 1 and 10 should be very noticable, if the probability was 10 times as high, but of course it is hard to get large amounts of RE level 10 stuff...
On the other hand, even with RE level 2, the effect should be noticable..
Regards
Niacia