Jedi Archive

Thread: Pearls and Crystal Tunes The Statistical Truth

Bloodfin_Architect
Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:22 pm
#1


First, I want to think everyone who helped me gather the data for my study on Jedi Crystals and Pearls. Overall, more than 300 crystals and pearls were randomly tuned over several weeks. The study's level of confidence is 98% for Crystals and 99% for pearls. Are 300 tunes enough? Given the confidence level, I don't believe there is any point to more tunes thatmight only change the results by a few fraction points. During the testing, I also checked to see if there was any correlation between Damage and FC, Damage and Speed, or any combination thereof. From the data, it seems there is no correlation and each attribute is based on its own table or formula. What this means to Jedi is that a perfect tune 110, -9, -0.29 for crystals and 120, -9, -0.29 for Pearls is all but impossible to attain. Instead of reporting to my fellow Jedi the numbers on every tune, I have decided to indicate the probability a crystal or pearl will tune within a certain range. As widely reported, Pearls tune higher than crystals at all levels but are harder to attain. Risk vs Reward.


Best of luck to my fellow Jedi. May the Force Be With You


Fair / Good Crystals (44.132 MEAN ... 21.998 SDEV)


00 - 10 4.6%

11 - 20 7.7%

21 - 3012.0%

31 - 40 15.8%

41 - 50 17.3%

51 - 60 15.6%

61 - 70 11.7%

71 - 80 7.3%

81 - 90 4.3%

91 - 100 2.2%

101+ 1.5%


Good Pearls (59.058 MEAN .... 22.178 SDEV)


00 - 10 1.9%

11 - 20 3.3%

21 - 30 6.1%

31 - 4010.1%

41 - 5014.3%

51 - 60 16.8%

61 - 7016.3%

71 - 8013.2%

81 - 90 8.9%

91 - 100 5.1%

101 - 1102.7%

111 - 120 1.3%


If we could get this stickied please, I think it would be helpful for all new and old Jedi for Post-CU tuning information. I will make no comment on how this affects the Jedi religion. The numbers speak for themselves.



Crafters and Entertainers Anonymous
One Publish Closer to a Cure

Bloodfin_Architect
Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:13 am
#2

/bump



Crafters and Entertainers Anonymous
One Publish Closer to a Cure

grayoberon
Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:18 am
#3

Excellent work. Thank you for the time you've put into this!



_____________________________________

So the room must listen to me
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Kivrin
Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:19 am
#4

Great job. Thanks.



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EcadMistflier
Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:20 am
#5

/bump






Ecad Mistflier
Force Wielder and Old School Disturber of the Peace
:: Ex Master Smuggler :: DEC 15 = BYE BYE SoE :: Ex SWG Jedi ::

"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
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starkey55
Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:20 am
#6

how is this a fair test to show if pearls tune better than crystals, BECAUSE U HAVE USED SOME LOWER QUALITY CRYSTALS which you would expect to tune lower, hence u can not use these results to prove that "Pearls tune higher than crystals at all levels"



~Tyga / Starkey~
Professional Alt
/
Jedi Padawan

Saereth
Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:22 am
#7


so by this analysis you're talking about roughly a 0.23076% chance fora perfect 110+ -9 -.29 tune or roughly 1 in 450 pearls. Soooo at 1mil per pearl thats only 1.8 Billion credits for a near perfect saber at those odds, We all know all the pre-cu jedi spent -AT least that much- and in most cases much much more.... feh




f...And all around Jack@ss of the Galaxy!
\
Colonel Saereth Lightsblade - Husband, Jedi, Politician, Rebel Ace

(
gnn[[[[[[[[[[]nnnWX9ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg)

Offer my Auction winnings to my vendor 482 -1365 (High End Loot vendor) Dantooine, City of Shadow

Bloodfin_Architect
Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:28 am
#8


Starkey,


There is no significant statistical difference between a fair and good crystal. You'll be disappointed tohear that so far even quality crystals fail to tune at the same levels as a good pearl. I need more"quality" crystal tunes before I can be sure of their range, but the prelimary numbers are not promising. You might also be surprised to hear that every single crystal that tuned over 100 during the test was a fair crystal. Best tune on a good, just over 90.


Message Edited by Bloodfin_Architect on 09-27-2005 10:32 AM



Crafters and Entertainers Anonymous
One Publish Closer to a Cure

TheCapn2000
Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:29 am
#9






Saereth wrote:


so by this analysis you're talking about roughly a 0.23076% chance fora perfect 110+ -9 -.29 tune or roughly 1 in 450 pearls. Soooo at 1mil per pearl thats only 1.8 Billion credits for a near perfect saber at those odds, We all know all the pre-cu jedi spent -AT least that much- and in most cases much much more.... feh





most pre-CU jedi I know didnt buy their pearls...they looted them...

Message Edited by TheCapn2000 on 09-27-2005 08:30 AM



«Sirros» «Dirrk» «Odin'»
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ArranSound
Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:38 am
#10




Bloodfin_Architect wrote:


Starkey,


There is no significant statistical difference between a fair and good crystal. You'll be disappointed tohear that so far even quality crystals fail to tune at the same levels as a good pearl. I need more"quality" crystal tunes before I can be sure of their range, but the prelimary numbers are not promising. You might also be surprised to hear that every single crystal that tuned over 100 during the test was a fair crystal. Best tune on a good, just over 90.



Message Edited by Bloodfin_Architect on 09-27-2005 10:32 AM




I started keeping a record of quality crystal tunes. (i've since up to explore pearls)

I didn't write down the actual damage values for the first 10, so you could discard those, but tunes 11-29 are the actual damage values I got on tuning.


Quality Crystal Tuning results





IGN : Arran / Gare
Vendor : (-900, 1948) 600m from Dant MO.
Bloodfin_Architect
Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:39 am
#11





Saereth wrote:


so by this analysis you're talking about roughly a 0.23076% chance fora perfect 110+ -9 -.29 tune or roughly 1 in 450 pearls. Soooo at 1mil per pearl thats only 1.8 Billion credits for a near perfect saber at those odds, We all know all the pre-cu jedi spent -AT least that much- and in most cases much much more.... feh





most pre-CU jedi I know didnt buy their pearls...they looted them...


___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


I think most of the Post-Cu Jedi are looting their's too. I've looted somewhere around 200 now (from all kinds of sources). Best tune for me was an 86, so I'm running behind the statistical curve. I wonder if I stood in front of a bus what my odds would be?



Crafters and Entertainers Anonymous
One Publish Closer to a Cure

Saereth
Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:40 am
#12

Oh sorry, im sure they all looted near 2000 pearls themselves... /sarcasm off




f...And all around Jack@ss of the Galaxy!
\
Colonel Saereth Lightsblade - Husband, Jedi, Politician, Rebel Ace

(
gnn[[[[[[[[[[]nnnWX9ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg)

Offer my Auction winnings to my vendor 482 -1365 (High End Loot vendor) Dantooine, City of Shadow

DocSavag
Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:41 am
#13


Bloodfin_Architect wrote:

Saereth wrote:
so by this analysis you're talking about roughly a 0.23076% chance fora perfect 110+ -9 -.29 tune or roughly 1 in 450 pearls. Soooo at 1mil per pearl thats only 1.8 Billion credits for a near perfect saber at those odds, We all know all the pre-cu jedi spent -AT least that much- and in most cases much much more.... feh



most pre-CU jedi I know didnt buy their pearls...they looted them...
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
I think most of the Post-Cu Jedi are looting their's too. I've looted somewhere around 200 now (from all kinds of sources). Best tune for me was an 86, so I'm running behind the statistical curve. I wonder if I stood in front of a bus what my odds would be?





Sorry I ruined your chances by tuning my second crystal to 101 -5..

Since then the best has been and 89 -7

(Just to clarify I'm not aruging the statistics. THey feel right to me based on my tunes so far. I was merely making a humourous obvservation that I blew the curve early in my tuning career and now the hard reality is settling in )

Message Edited by DocSavag on 09-27-2005 11:42 AM



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