Items And Loot Archive
Thread: Loot drop randomness: a hypothesis
People say loot drops are random, luck if you will. I have a different theory to propose, and I'd like to hear if your experience reinforces it or discredits it.
The first part of my theory is that there is "Beginner's Luck" logic that gives preference to new experiences like looting the GDK, krayts, and master BH missions.
Examples:
* In my first ~10 ancient krayt dragon kills, I looted a good pearl, some krayt scales, and some fair krayt tissues. That's a substantial loot drop % wouldn't you say?
* In my first ~10 GDK kills at Kimo City, I looted 2 sets of GDK scales.
* In my first ~20 master BH missions, I looted scopes, power cells, and I think a decent SEA or two.
* My friend is just starting master BH missions. I am not sure how many he's done, but it isn't more than 50-60. He has looted a +16 general ranged speed AA AND a +17 general ranged speed AA... This one in particular, got me to thinking again about this theory.
The second part of my theory is a "Luck roll" that may be done when you log in or once per server reset or something. This one is tough to nail down and it's admittedly the weaker part of my theory because I can't think of a really good reason for it to exist other than to throw in some variety. Please don't log out and log in repeatedly if you get bugs for your BH mission because that would be retarded. Further, the evidence here I expect will be especially anecdotal.
Examples:
* I've looted several SEAs within the same session, maybe 2-3 in 5-10 consecutive missions. I think my friend that got 2 gen ranged speed SEAs got both a good Luck Roll along with his Beginner's Luck factor.
* I've camped the GDK, killing it 10-15 times for 2 days. The other day, I looted GDK scales, looted again for nothing, looted yet again for GDK scales, looted twice for nothing, and then looted YET AGAIN some more GDK scales. This was within 2-3 hours.
We all hear stories of dry spells and good runs. Is there more to it than luck?
By now you should be asking yourself, why the hell would anyone go to the trouble of an elaborate behind-the-scenes calcualtion like this. Several reasons:
* Plain-jane random dice rolls are boring, old news, D&D - been there done that. We already know there are loot tables, but what if it's even more involved than that?
* For "Beginner's Luck" especially, what better way to help the new player with good loot without encouraging loot campers.
* What better way to control loot drop rates than to modify stuff the players don't even know about!
Again, this is nothing that will help or hinder your ability to loot. So besides the "Hello Captain Obvious", or "Your are full of #$*@^", or "Wow maybe you're right" comments, I'd like to hear your answers to 3 questions:
How many times did you roll up on something new (like dungeons, big game, or the new master BH loot) and go "Wow, I must be really lucky!" ?
How often do you have dry spells and good runs, and how often do they seem to last?
A third, really out-there question is, what is your race? (I wonder if there are inherent racial bonuses for looting. Personally, I am a Bothan.)
Thanks for your input. Remember, the Truth is out there...
Would they really go to such an extent ? I seem to have the reverse of Beginner's luck. Terribly initially, gets better.
The only way any of your hypotheses could actually be true is if they intentionally coded it to be so, and why would they ?
Your hypotheses would be more accurate with precise results. Your sense of time may well be distorted if you sit there camping the GDK all day.
Count kills, count time, not assumptions.
How many times did you roll up on something new (like dungeons, big game, or the new master BH loot) and go "Wow, I must be really lucky!" ?
Rarely. This is linked to my second point.
How often do you have dry spells and good runs, and how often do they seem to last?
I never seem to have "spells" or "runs". I just randomly get spikes of good and bad loot. I can see no pattern.
A third, really out-there question is, what is your race? (I wonder if there are inherent racial bonuses for looting. Personally, I am a Bothan.)
Human.
Interesting hypotheses, but I can't understand the logic behind it.
I don't know, that's a whole lot of programming and data storage to have done that ultimately doesn't have any practical purpose. For what it's worth, I do think drop rates aren't fixed percentages, however. I've been keeping track of loot drops, in this case those from krayts and from high level bh marks and there seems to be a very noticable decrease in the drop rates of useful things over weekends.Thisleaves me to believe there's some daily quota which, once reached, reduces the drop rates of the things we all consider useful and valuable in order to avoid flooding the game with these items. And, it's not an unreasonable expectation that a daily quota would be reached much more quickly on a weekend when game population is highest.
I've had my share of good luck and dry spells just like everyone else.
There is some method to the madness, and you hinted to it.
When you first start the game the client is obviously starting a random number seed. Something that is verified by the server. While I would imagine the server decides what you loot, I'd be willing to be the client decides IF you loot anything.
I have had my "luck" changed with both crafting and looting several times by simply re-starting the game.
More than once I have had the same thing happen. For example I used to kill nightsisters in droves back before the CU in my swordsman/doc days. If I didn't loot anything decent for say an hour, I would shut down the game and restart it. And directly after I would end up looting something useful ever 10 minutes or so.
I've had it happen with crafting like I said. Craft for 20 or 30 minutes and get an amazing every 30 or so tries. Close down the game, restart it and get one every 6 or 8 tries for the rest of that login.
Anyone can call me crazy if you wish, but the next time you have a dry spell trying closing the game and restarting it again, see what happens. (Disconnecting won't do it, the game must be closed completely)
Taking breaks such as disconnecting, would psychologically give you hope. It's the equivalent of why people are still superstitious despite their better knowledge. It can't hurt to try, can it ?
Would they really go to an extent to program such a complex loot system when the simple "roll" method has worked for so long ?
There's some good input on that "Luck Roll" part of the theory. I was unsure of that one, but it sounds like others see it too. Though the psychological trick you play on yourself - thinking you exert some control, that's also a good point. Me, I purposefully try to ignore my disappointing loots so that I won't get discouraged (since looting above all else takes patience!), so I KNOW there's some mind tricks going on in my head.
There are 2 other questions brought up - HOW and WHY? I think I have some answers for both of these.
First the HOW?
The initial way I thought this would be implemented would be by storing data for every kill and programming a complex query against it. But there's a more efficient way. Consider that each is a class of NPC (all krayts are "Krayt", all Black Sun NPCs are "Black Sun", all goraxes are... well "Gorax"). In games I've worked on (MUDs*), there is a kill count - in other words this isn't unheard of. So let's say the eventual dice roll range is 1 to 100, and god I hate people posting pseudo-code but this is the only way I can think to show this...
ChanceToLoot = number_range(1,100) + 10/[numkills("Krayt")+1]
...so if I've never killed a krayt, my ChanceToLoot would have 10 added to it giving me a 10% better chance. After killing 10, my bonus is gone. I could still roll #@$% so the bonus wouldn't really help me, but the chance would be there.
Now the question WHY?
Like I said, a basic dice roll is boring and too easy for the mathematically-inclined player to figure out. You know there's something more to it. Kill 1000 krayts and you still don't see a clear percent right? I mean hell, look at the FAQ on armor stats:
Brutus_Krylop wrote:What the heck do these numbers mean?The four-digit number on your armor is technically the independent variable in a quadratic equation for percentile resists mapping the domain [0, 10000] onto the image [0, 60]. In layman's terms, that means that the armor rating signifies a percentile resist (as in the old system) ranging from 0 to 60%. Because the equation is concave quadratic, you get diminishing returns for higher resists.The actual function is: 60 * (AR/10000) + { [ (10000 - AR) / 10000 ] * (AR/200) }Which reduces to: 0.011 * AR - 5E-7 * AR * AR
I mean WTH? This goes to show game designers get off on making it spicier than that. These folks are computer engineering math junkies. In the MUD I worked on, I made this cloak that had a chance to resist an attack and cast a random spell at the attacker (kinda like duelist stance). It cast 1 of 5 different spells one of each color. If the spell Magey McFighting rolled matched the mage's color, it was more powerful. I relished in my players' confounded-ness.
* MUDs are text-based games you play over telnet. They run on the most basic of Unix servers. They are multi-player but not massively multi-player. The difference in MUDs and SWG are merely the client's graphical stuff. The server-side number-crunching, storing data, and game systems are exactly the same.
Anyway, MORE COMMENTS! MORE EXPERIENCES!
2. lvl 82 - Talus - Bio Engineer Poster + DTA
3. lvl 81 - Talus - CA [Heavy Weapon Speed + 9, One Handed Speed +14]
4. lvl 81 - Yavin 4 - Scatter Pistol + DTA
5. lvl 81 - Lok - Mano
6. lvl 81 - Endor - BH schematic + Leather
7. lvl 81 - Dathomir - CA [Medical Experimentation +12, Poison Resist +7] + ABC
8. lvl 81 - Talus - Jar of bugs CA [ Cam +8, Artisan exp +4, BF healing +8]
9. lvl 81 - Rori - DTA
12. lvl 82 - Tatooine - CA [Artisan exp +11 GTB +4 Dance enhancing +7]
13. lvl 81 BOSS - Lok - Uber Enhanced Power Cells + BH Chematic + CA [Bio Supression +18, Rifle Speed +10] + ICB
14. lvl 81 - Dantooine - DTA
15.BUGGED
16. lvl 81 - DAntooine - Cargo Pocket + IBC
17. lvl 81 - Naboo - DTA
18. lvl 82 - Tatooine - Mando
19. lvl 82 - Rori - Mano + IBC
20. lvl 82 - Tatooine - CA [TN +13, Def Vs Stun 12] + Mando
21. lvl 82 - Corellia - DTA
22. lvl 82 - Naboo - Nothing
23. BUGGED
24. lvl 82 BOSS - DTA
25. lvl 82 - Corellia - Micro Plating
26. lvl 82 - Dathomir - DTA
27. lvl 81 - Rori - JAr of Bugs
29. lvl 82 BOSS - Endor - DTA, Enhanced Power Cells, BH schematic
30. lvl81 - Naboo - Mand0 + CA [LS exp +10, Chas Exp +12] + Dmg Crystal
31. lvl 82 BOSS - ICB + BH Schematic
32. lvl 81 - Lok - BH Schematic + Jar of Bugs
33. lvl 81 - Corellia - ICB
34. lvl 82 - Dathomir - Crystal
35. lvl 82 BOSS - Tatooine - CA [CAm +15, Musica Enhance +8]
36. BUGGED
37. lvl 82 BOSS - Dantooine - DTA
38. lvl 81 - Naboo - Jar of Bugs
39. lvl 82 - Lok - Warm hat
40. lvl 82 - Rori -Jar of bugs
41. lvl 81 - Dathomir - Yellow Crystal + ICB + Micro Plating
42. lvl 81 - Lok - Scatter pistol
43. lvl 82 - Rori - T21
44. lvl81 - Talus - AA [Carb Speed +4, Healing Eff +5, Def Vs KD +11] + Blue Crystal + Jar of Bugs
45. lvl 81 - Corellia - Heavy Duty Clasps + ICB
46. lvl 82 - Corellia - AA [Polearm Acc +9, Bleed Restist +10] +ICB
47. lvl 81 - Rori - DTA
48. lvl 81 - Dantooine - Jar of Bees
49. lvl 81 - Rori - Jar of Bugs
50. lvl 81 - Tatooine - ICB
51. lvl 81 - Dantooine - MRP + Locked Container
52. NOTHING
53. lvl 91 - DTA
54. lvl 82 - ICB _ BH schematic
55. lvl 82 BOSS - Datooine - NOTHING
56. lvl 81 - Tatooine - BH schematic
57. lvl 82 - Endor - DTA
58. lvl 81 - Lok - RMP
59. lvl 82 BOSS - Rori - DTA
strange but RESPAWN OF BOSS LOL ^^ Cystral + ICB
60. lvl 82 - Lok - ICB
61. lvl 81 - Tatooine - DTA
62. lvl 82 - Rori - ICB + Crystalline Clothing Treatment
63. lvl 81 - Dathomir - Mando Frame
64. lvl 82 - Naboo - Jar of Bees
65. lvl 81 - Tatooine - Locked Container + ICB
66. lvl 81 - Naboo - Mando frame
67. lvl 81-Tatooine - MRP
yo CuervO,
i find that i often loot CA's and AA's from my bounty missions. of course i go for the highest payouts, but i still cant find a direct corellation between the two.
i get most of my RIS components on ym first try, oddly enough. i spent about 45 mins at the woolamander poi and got enough for like 3 suits, the drops were incredible. spent an hour at kimo town and got all the scales i need, and the gurk king hides kept rollin on in. now peko-peko's are a different story, even though they reportedly have the highest drop rates, when i do find themi dont get feathers ![]()
i do however get sweet loots when i go to Kash and camp some of the rare weap drop points.
havent gotten any enahnced power cells though - i'd love to stumble on some of those or maybe get some good krayt tissue.
Leoten