Items And Loot Archive

Thread: Loot drop randomness: a hypothesis

Cuerv0
Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:24 pm
#1

Before I go into this, let me say that knowing this will neither give you an advantage or disadvantage in what you loot. I'm just throwing this information out because I'm curious if this is how the code works or not. This is for insight more than anything. Now I am a programmer, and I know this kind of system is possible. I can envision how the data is collected, stored, and queried. So keep your mind open, and remember this is a human being's programming logic governing how this game works - NOT a higher being controlling the universe and the randomness within...

People say loot drops are random, luck if you will. I have a different theory to propose, and I'd like to hear if your experience reinforces it or discredits it.

The first part of my theory is that there is "Beginner's Luck" logic that gives preference to new experiences like looting the GDK, krayts, and master BH missions.

Examples:
* In my first ~10 ancient krayt dragon kills, I looted a good pearl, some krayt scales, and some fair krayt tissues. That's a substantial loot drop % wouldn't you say?

* In my first ~10 GDK kills at Kimo City, I looted 2 sets of GDK scales.

* In my first ~20 master BH missions, I looted scopes, power cells, and I think a decent SEA or two.

* My friend is just starting master BH missions. I am not sure how many he's done, but it isn't more than 50-60. He has looted a +16 general ranged speed AA AND a +17 general ranged speed AA... This one in particular, got me to thinking again about this theory.


The second part of my theory is a "Luck roll" that may be done when you log in or once per server reset or something. This one is tough to nail down and it's admittedly the weaker part of my theory because I can't think of a really good reason for it to exist other than to throw in some variety. Please don't log out and log in repeatedly if you get bugs for your BH mission because that would be retarded. Further, the evidence here I expect will be especially anecdotal.

Examples:
* I've looted several SEAs within the same session, maybe 2-3 in 5-10 consecutive missions. I think my friend that got 2 gen ranged speed SEAs got both a good Luck Roll along with his Beginner's Luck factor.

* I've camped the GDK, killing it 10-15 times for 2 days. The other day, I looted GDK scales, looted again for nothing, looted yet again for GDK scales, looted twice for nothing, and then looted YET AGAIN some more GDK scales. This was within 2-3 hours.


We all hear stories of dry spells and good runs. Is there more to it than luck?

By now you should be asking yourself, why the hell would anyone go to the trouble of an elaborate behind-the-scenes calcualtion like this. Several reasons:
* Plain-jane random dice rolls are boring, old news, D&D - been there done that. We already know there are loot tables, but what if it's even more involved than that?

* For "Beginner's Luck" especially, what better way to help the new player with good loot without encouraging loot campers.

* What better way to control loot drop rates than to modify stuff the players don't even know about!

Again, this is nothing that will help or hinder your ability to loot. So besides the "Hello Captain Obvious", or "Your are full of #$*@^", or "Wow maybe you're right" comments, I'd like to hear your answers to 3 questions:

How many times did you roll up on something new (like dungeons, big game, or the new master BH loot) and go "Wow, I must be really lucky!" ?

How often do you have dry spells and good runs, and how often do they seem to last?

A third, really out-there question is, what is your race? (I wonder if there are inherent racial bonuses for looting. Personally, I am a Bothan.)

Thanks for your input. Remember, the Truth is out there...




Breve Aocak'tah


If I am teh winner, offer to -440 -4312 Star Haven, Talus



Shizzie for yo Hizzie at Breve's eXtreme Home Depot!
Kyodor
Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:36 pm
#2

The percentages are far too awkward to begin nailing down theories.

Would they really go to such an extent ? I seem to have the reverse of Beginner's luck. Terribly initially, gets better.

The only way any of your hypotheses could actually be true is if they intentionally coded it to be so, and why would they ?

Your hypotheses would be more accurate with precise results. Your sense of time may well be distorted if you sit there camping the GDK all day.

Count kills, count time, not assumptions.

How many times did you roll up on something new (like dungeons, big game, or the new master BH loot) and go "Wow, I must be really lucky!" ?

Rarely. This is linked to my second point.

How often do you have dry spells and good runs, and how often do they seem to last?

I never seem to have "spells" or "runs". I just randomly get spikes of good and bad loot. I can see no pattern.

A third, really out-there question is, what is your race? (I wonder if there are inherent racial bonuses for looting. Personally, I am a Bothan.)

Human.

Interesting hypotheses, but I can't understand the logic behind it.



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MrFrank
Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:40 pm
#3

I agree with Kyo- I wish there was a way to figure out drop percentage. I try to invision something like a very fast counter going from 1-100......fast then whenever I kill the npc/creature the counter STOPS. And hope it lands on loot. well thats my interpretation on the situation




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Morwen
Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:20 pm
#4

I don't know, that's a whole lot of programming and data storage to have done that ultimately doesn't have any practical purpose. For what it's worth, I do think drop rates aren't fixed percentages, however. I've been keeping track of loot drops, in this case those from krayts and from high level bh marks and there seems to be a very noticable decrease in the drop rates of useful things over weekends.Thisleaves me to believe there's some daily quota which, once reached, reduces the drop rates of the things we all consider useful and valuable in order to avoid flooding the game with these items. And, it's not an unreasonable expectation that a daily quota would be reached much more quickly on a weekend when game population is highest.


TheRealXur
Sun Oct 16, 2005 1:43 am
#5

I've had my share of good luck and dry spells just like everyone else.


There is some method to the madness, and you hinted to it.


When you first start the game the client is obviously starting a random number seed. Something that is verified by the server. While I would imagine the server decides what you loot, I'd be willing to be the client decides IF you loot anything.


I have had my "luck" changed with both crafting and looting several times by simply re-starting the game.


More than once I have had the same thing happen. For example I used to kill nightsisters in droves back before the CU in my swordsman/doc days. If I didn't loot anything decent for say an hour, I would shut down the game and restart it. And directly after I would end up looting something useful ever 10 minutes or so.


I've had it happen with crafting like I said. Craft for 20 or 30 minutes and get an amazing every 30 or so tries. Close down the game, restart it and get one every 6 or 8 tries for the rest of that login.


Anyone can call me crazy if you wish, but the next time you have a dry spell trying closing the game and restarting it again, see what happens. (Disconnecting won't do it, the game must be closed completely)


Kyodor
Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:25 am
#6

It's most likely a simple probability code.

Taking breaks such as disconnecting, would psychologically give you hope. It's the equivalent of why people are still superstitious despite their better knowledge. It can't hurt to try, can it ?

Would they really go to an extent to program such a complex loot system when the simple "roll" method has worked for so long ?



Logic
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fatham
Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:05 am
#7

i agree 100% with the logging in for a sometimes good lootrun



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Cuerv0
Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:25 am
#8

Thanks, keep 'em coming!

There's some good input on that "Luck Roll" part of the theory. I was unsure of that one, but it sounds like others see it too. Though the psychological trick you play on yourself - thinking you exert some control, that's also a good point. Me, I purposefully try to ignore my disappointing loots so that I won't get discouraged (since looting above all else takes patience!), so I KNOW there's some mind tricks going on in my head.

There are 2 other questions brought up - HOW and WHY? I think I have some answers for both of these.

First the HOW?

The initial way I thought this would be implemented would be by storing data for every kill and programming a complex query against it. But there's a more efficient way. Consider that each is a class of NPC (all krayts are "Krayt", all Black Sun NPCs are "Black Sun", all goraxes are... well "Gorax"). In games I've worked on (MUDs*), there is a kill count - in other words this isn't unheard of. So let's say the eventual dice roll range is 1 to 100, and god I hate people posting pseudo-code but this is the only way I can think to show this...

ChanceToLoot = number_range(1,100) + 10/[numkills("Krayt")+1]

...so if I've never killed a krayt, my ChanceToLoot would have 10 added to it giving me a 10% better chance. After killing 10, my bonus is gone. I could still roll #@$% so the bonus wouldn't really help me, but the chance would be there.


Now the question WHY?

Like I said, a basic dice roll is boring and too easy for the mathematically-inclined player to figure out. You know there's something more to it. Kill 1000 krayts and you still don't see a clear percent right? I mean hell, look at the FAQ on armor stats:


Brutus_Krylop wrote:
What the heck do these numbers mean?
The four-digit number on your armor is technically the independent variable in a quadratic equation for percentile resists mapping the domain [0, 10000] onto the image [0, 60]. In layman's terms, that means that the armor rating signifies a percentile resist (as in the old system) ranging from 0 to 60%. Because the equation is concave quadratic, you get diminishing returns for higher resists.
The actual function is: 60 * (AR/10000) + { [ (10000 - AR) / 10000 ] * (AR/200) }
Which reduces to: 0.011 * AR - 5E-7 * AR * AR




I mean WTH? This goes to show game designers get off on making it spicier than that. These folks are computer engineering math junkies. In the MUD I worked on, I made this cloak that had a chance to resist an attack and cast a random spell at the attacker (kinda like duelist stance). It cast 1 of 5 different spells one of each color. If the spell Magey McFighting rolled matched the mage's color, it was more powerful. I relished in my players' confounded-ness.

* MUDs are text-based games you play over telnet. They run on the most basic of Unix servers. They are multi-player but not massively multi-player. The difference in MUDs and SWG are merely the client's graphical stuff. The server-side number-crunching, storing data, and game systems are exactly the same.

Anyway, MORE COMMENTS! MORE EXPERIENCES!




Breve Aocak'tah


If I am teh winner, offer to -440 -4312 Star Haven, Talus



Shizzie for yo Hizzie at Breve's eXtreme Home Depot!
godares79
Sun Oct 16, 2005 7:49 pm
#9

I havent really tried this with my BH post-CU, but for pre-CU I found that having no uber loot in my inventory/backpack increased my chances of getting a good loot.


I only tested this on Nyax because I loot whored him back when he was on the 3:40 timer, and when he was on his 5min timer. Between spawns I would run upstairs and put the SEA I got (I just deleted the other stuff) into a storage droid. Then go back down and wait for him to spawn so I could kill him again. And I found that I could loot a SEA almost every 2nd loot or so. Whereas if I kept the SEA's I got from him in my inventory I would only loot a SEA every 6 or 7 trys... call it superstition, but I found it strange. For the 3 hour, 40min timer I would drop off the SEA (if I got one, and I usually did get one), then I would go loot whre krayts till he respawned. I also noticed this for krayts, I would loot a couple sets of tissues, then for the next 2 hours only get scales or nothing, maybe a fair pearl. I cant really comment on krayts though, as I never took them seriously heh. I would alternate between NS/Krayts depending on what I felt like killing.


I recently reactivated my alt who I used to **edit** nyax and turned him into a BH/pistol for running NPC bounty missions. In my first 25 or so missions, I got 4 SEA's, a couple crystals, enhanced power cells, enhanced feeders and 5 or 6 BH appearance schems. Since then I have probably run 25+ missions, and all I have gotten are slicing compenents, and 1 BH schem. I'm going to drop off my loot in my house, and run some more missions to see if I get any nice loot.


Maybe the devs programmed it like this because they forsaw the problem of afk loot whores?



Ezekiel
Exposis
Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:01 pm
#10

i kept a list of this weeks list if you want to have a look but im pretty sure its all random from what i have seen, but I have noticed i get better loot at the beg of a month and when less people are on.



1. lvl 81 - Tatooine - Scatter Pistol + DTA
2. lvl 82 - Talus - Bio Engineer Poster + DTA
3. lvl 81 - Talus - CA [Heavy Weapon Speed + 9, One Handed Speed +14]
4. lvl 81 - Yavin 4 - Scatter Pistol + DTA
5. lvl 81 - Lok - Mano
6. lvl 81 - Endor - BH schematic + Leather
7. lvl 81 - Dathomir - CA [Medical Experimentation +12, Poison Resist +7] + ABC
8. lvl 81 - Talus - Jar of bugs CA [ Cam +8, Artisan exp +4, BF healing +8]
9. lvl 81 - Rori - DTA
12. lvl 82 - Tatooine - CA [Artisan exp +11 GTB +4 Dance enhancing +7]
13. lvl 81 BOSS - Lok - Uber Enhanced Power Cells + BH Chematic + CA [Bio Supression +18, Rifle Speed +10] + ICB
14. lvl 81 - Dantooine - DTA
15.BUGGED
16. lvl 81 - DAntooine - Cargo Pocket + IBC
17. lvl 81 - Naboo - DTA
18. lvl 82 - Tatooine - Mando
19. lvl 82 - Rori - Mano + IBC
20. lvl 82 - Tatooine - CA [TN +13, Def Vs Stun 12] + Mando
21. lvl 82 - Corellia - DTA
22. lvl 82 - Naboo - Nothing
23. BUGGED
24. lvl 82 BOSS - DTA
25. lvl 82 - Corellia - Micro Plating
26. lvl 82 - Dathomir - DTA
27. lvl 81 - Rori - JAr of Bugs
29. lvl 82 BOSS - Endor - DTA, Enhanced Power Cells, BH schematic
30. lvl81 - Naboo - Mand0 + CA [LS exp +10, Chas Exp +12] + Dmg Crystal
31. lvl 82 BOSS - ICB + BH Schematic
32. lvl 81 - Lok - BH Schematic + Jar of Bugs
33. lvl 81 - Corellia - ICB
34. lvl 82 - Dathomir - Crystal
35. lvl 82 BOSS - Tatooine - CA [CAm +15, Musica Enhance +8]
36. BUGGED
37. lvl 82 BOSS - Dantooine - DTA
38. lvl 81 - Naboo - Jar of Bugs
39. lvl 82 - Lok - Warm hat
40. lvl 82 - Rori -Jar of bugs
41. lvl 81 - Dathomir - Yellow Crystal + ICB + Micro Plating
42. lvl 81 - Lok - Scatter pistol
43. lvl 82 - Rori - T21
44. lvl81 - Talus - AA [Carb Speed +4, Healing Eff +5, Def Vs KD +11] + Blue Crystal + Jar of Bugs
45. lvl 81 - Corellia - Heavy Duty Clasps + ICB
46. lvl 82 - Corellia - AA [Polearm Acc +9, Bleed Restist +10] +ICB
47. lvl 81 - Rori - DTA
48. lvl 81 - Dantooine - Jar of Bees
49. lvl 81 - Rori - Jar of Bugs
50. lvl 81 - Tatooine - ICB
51. lvl 81 - Dantooine - MRP + Locked Container
52. NOTHING
53. lvl 91 - DTA
54. lvl 82 - ICB _ BH schematic
55. lvl 82 BOSS - Datooine - NOTHING
56. lvl 81 - Tatooine - BH schematic
57. lvl 82 - Endor - DTA
58. lvl 81 - Lok - RMP
59. lvl 82 BOSS - Rori - DTA
strange but RESPAWN OF BOSS LOL ^^ Cystral + ICB
60. lvl 82 - Lok - ICB
61. lvl 81 - Tatooine - DTA
62. lvl 82 - Rori - ICB + Crystalline Clothing Treatment
63. lvl 81 - Dathomir - Mando Frame
64. lvl 82 - Naboo - Jar of Bees
65. lvl 81 - Tatooine - Locked Container + ICB
66. lvl 81 - Naboo - Mando frame
67. lvl 81-Tatooine - MRP



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molybdendum
Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:35 pm
#11

good im not insane. yeah i resurrected a lev 80 alt from the pre cu days when you needed alts and made him a bh. id say at first i was getting sea's and the good weapon components quite frequently and was enjoying the hell out of it. id say maybe i got a loot worth keeping/selling about once every 20 master bh missions. then, one day, i got nothing.

then the next day.....nothing

then the next day.....nothing

then the next day.....nothing

then the next day.....nothing

them the next day....nothing

then......i quit






MistR PibB
Smerconish
Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:12 am
#12

yo CuervO,



i find that i often loot CA's and AA's from my bounty missions. of course i go for the highest payouts, but i still cant find a direct corellation between the two.


i get most of my RIS components on ym first try, oddly enough. i spent about 45 mins at the woolamander poi and got enough for like 3 suits, the drops were incredible. spent an hour at kimo town and got all the scales i need, and the gurk king hides kept rollin on in. now peko-peko's are a different story, even though they reportedly have the highest drop rates, when i do find themi dont get feathers


i do however get sweet loots when i go to Kash and camp some of the rare weap drop points.


havent gotten any enahnced power cells though - i'd love to stumble on some of those or maybe get some good krayt tissue.



Leoten





Leoten Semper
EXO: Bounty Hunters and Loot Aficionados
Playing Since 8/24/03
NamedJughead
Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:51 am
#13

I think it may have something to do with location and how many people are/have been there that day. My example is I was camping a location I stumbled upon a few days ago. First night I was the only one there for 2 hours. I killed all and looted all. I ended up with something like this: 12 crystals of various colors (2 clear), 6 rifles, 10 melee weapons, about a dozen various pieces of junk clothing, treasure map disk,about 6 various stacked components. This was a thursday night into friday morning and prolly not many people online at those hours. I went back again on Saturday afternoon thinking I would end up with another dozen color crystals and more stuff i could sell. I get there to find 4 other people already there killing and looting. After the same amount of time, I ended up with the same number of weapons + or - the variations, a few extra pieces of clothing than before, and about 5 crystals(none clear). I spoke with a few of the others there to see what kind of stuff they were looting and some of them told me they had looted 2-3 crystals in the first 20 minutes. Oddly the same luck i had that first night. Seems like I got a random crystal every 10-15 kills. Sometimes would go 10 kills where would get no loot, only credits. Maybe when the creature/npc spawns is when the loot is generated within it. Combined with time of day, loot drop percentages for server, population online, and various other things, you end up with your daily loot table. I dunno, im no math major, anyone who has done business with me in the past would be aware of this fact, lol. Oh and im Human btw.



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