Droid Engineer Archive

The random number generators in this game seem a little streaky to me. I can go a week and not have any crit fails, then have a half hour time period where everything I touch goes down the crapper. The 5% does average out over thousands of attempts by a bunch of different crafters, but it seems like once you get a few crit fails, you're better off to go check harvestors or something else for a while...

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Malitevv wrote:

dude. just because you fail a bunch of times in a row because of random dumb luck in one instance doesn't mean the the probability of failure is high. it just means you were really unlucky that time.

ever roll 5 six sided dice and get all sixes? that's 5 sixes in a row. does it mean that the probability of rolling a 6 isn't 1 in 6? no, it doesn't.

this is no different.

1 in 20 chance of failure means a 1 in 400 chance of failing twice in a row (which is pretty darned high actually). It means 1 in 8000 chance of failing 3 times in a row, which is pretty unlikely but is going to happen 1 out of every 8000 crafting attempts. There are easily more than 8000 crafters playing this game. Which means we are guaranteed that SOMEBODY is going to see three failures happen in a row. Were pretty well guaranteed that somebody is going to see 4 failures in a row even because the odds on that are 1 in 160,000.

So my point is that 5% chance of failure guaranteesus that sometime 2, 3, or even 4 critical failures willoccassionally happen.

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I guess I was on a rant there, sorry. My point was lost in the heat of the moment. But this is just one instance of this happening. My point being, for a guy who does not post much, it took a lot of failures over the past week to get me to post. I've only started making large numbers of droids (3-4 a day) and I'm getting more than 5% failure. I realize that I'm taking one to three items crafts to make one whole droid but that just makes my point. That increases the chance for a failure in making one droid. Do you get the picture? How many items (hand crafted) to make a droid? Statisticly, you will lose a whole droid in every, what? 3-5 droids. I'm no expert here, but is that what is really intended here?

I read on one of the forums the problem seems to be that the 5% crit fail scenario remains the same no matter how far up the tree you climb. It would make sense that the higher you climb that tree (closer to Master), the lower that crit fail % should tend to be.

Along with the new experimentation changes which are going in this next patch, I believe they are supposed to address this as well.

Has anyone readthe new experimentation rules for crafters? I have no clue what they are trying to say in that explanation. Are we getting hosed or getting a better deal if you mastered a profession?

I do not care what the official statistics are, but I have logged every single creation I have ever made.

My records show 1:150 crit fails..and that has always been using a droid craft station. I thought for a long time thatI had never had an architect station, but delving deep into my memory I do remember long long ago I did. A cheap one.

Lucky? Probably. But the random number generator in this game is as broken as the old UO one was. In fact considering how many UO Devs came to SWG it would not surprise me to learn that it is the very same code.

It may well be different for others, but it may also be to do with how high in the sky Tatooine is when viewed from Lok. One thing I do know, my R3 is not for sale

Happy Crafting and Good Luck

Sometimes I swear it knows just when to send me into crit fail land...

...like last night when I failed an advanced R3 I was making for a resident in my city. Level 6 everything, including armor, food/chem module, WDG module,and droid repair module. Poof.