Development Cycle Archive
Thread: Crafting Critical Failure Rates
Subcriminal
Mon Jan 26, 2004 4:30 pm
#53
I get more crit fails on creation since I've switched to amorsmith (former tailor here). So I am wondering how much schematic complexity and resource quality factors into things, if at all. I also noticed that the sockets on armor is much more inconsistent and unstable when compared to sockets on tailor clothing. As a master tailor, most of my items come out with 4 sockets, an occasional 3 and a very rare 2 or 1. With making armor ubese shirts I noticed that the number of socketswere all over the place with no consistancy according to skill or resource quality. I am both a master armorsmith and a master tailor.
Trying to get a good item can feel like an exercise in futility, especially when resource quality, tool quality, crafting station quality and profession skill seem to have NOTHING to do with improving our chances against experimentations fails- even thought the description of these items imply that they do. This is partially why I tend to feel very cheated and get all cranky, things that are supposed to help improve my crafting simply don't.
In addition the 0% risk indicator is very deceptive while numbers crunching the the backrground seem to be against me. Becuase I have to experiment several times on each item just to make it worthwhile (instead of using all points at once), my experimentation crit fail rate is more like 25% when I tally up the numbers.
When it takes numerous components (while using the multiple-experiment technique that most crafters use) to make a final product, I think you can see how our final success rate is so slim. With armor, for example, 1 in 4 failure chance on each layer. The few layers that were lucky to survive experimentation now go in as a subcomponent to armor segments. Here we have another 1 in 4 experiment failure chance. Any armor segments that survice with flying colors now go into armor, where once again we face a 1 in 4 experimental failure chance. The mount of resources andtime gone to waste justto make a fine piece or armor is horrific.
While I like crafting, sometimes this experimentation crit fail is enough to give a crafter an ulcer 
Vercin_getorix
Mon Jan 26, 2004 4:31 pm
#54
Betatoxin wrote:
BlueMorgoth wrote:
One particular issue that I have with it is the cyclic nature of the failures. It appears to have something to do with the way the initial random seed is set up when you log in. Some nights I will start crafting and have no failures for a very long time (ie 4-5 hours of constant crafting) and then suddenly 6 or 7 crit failures on the combine (and most typically on the final combine too, which is the most expensive). I have found that if I continue to craft I will continue to get a horridly high number of crit fails and thus it is not worth my time crafting any more, as I am throwing away more resources than are making it to a final product. Logging out, going away for an hour or so and coming back in will usually alter this behaviour, but if I just log out (all the way, not just disconnect) and the log back in straight away, I continue to have really high failure rates.
Gamblers Fallacy.
You are assuming that because you have failures that occur right after each other that is somehow violating random probability. This is almost certainly not that case. You are simply suffering from the same misconception of probability that almost everyone does. You are assuming a connection between independent events that is not there or that somehow streaks of one outcome or another "mean" something or are breaking the rules.
http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/gamblers-fallacy.html
http://seercom.com/bcs/resources/criticalthinking/hcf.gamblers.html
http://www.fallacyfiles.org/gamblers.html#Reverse
So while it is possible that the PRNG in SWG is somehow out of whack it is far more likely that you are simpling making a very common but incorrect intuitive assumption. How common? There is an entire multi-billion dollar industry and city based around Gamblers Fallacy, its called Las Vegas.
You are absolutely correct. But here me out:
We are suggesting that the random numbers somehow go stale from time to time. Looking at the entire data set, it is impossbile to prove that assertion. The locks will normalize each other out as time goes on.
Looking at local subsets is not much easier. Determining normal streaks from true aberrations is a notoriously difficult problem.
All I can offer is that I have personally experienced some very improbable streaks in the game, and some of them are down right uncanny.
I seems like (to me at least), if there is a problem (which there may not be), looking at the random number generator would be fertile ground.
To put it simply, there is a 1 in 16384 chance of getting 14 of the same type slice in a row in a truly random system. It has happened to me twice. Was it luck? Possibly. Is there something wrong with the random number generatot? Maybe.
BigAke
Mon Jan 26, 2004 4:32 pm
#55
palladiumleader wrote:D'oh! calculator typo! The actual numbers are slightly lower.number of Probabilityexperiments:of a failure:0 4.49%1 8.5%2 12.9%317.1%421.3%
are you sure that you got the calculation right?
with a failure rate of 4.49% on assembly, you will succeed 95.51% of all assemblies and with a failure rate of 4.21% on experimentation, you have an experimentation success rate of 95.79%.
assuming that all rolls are independant, your overall chance to craft an item without any failure would be
0.9551 * (0.9579^n)
where n is the number of experimentation attempts.
the chance of failing at least once is
1 - (0.9551 * (0.0579^n))
so the numbers should be
0: 4.49%
1: 8.51%
2: 12.36%
3: 16.05%
4: 19.59%
but regardless of the actual numbers, i felt that experimentation failure rates (the ones that read failure) are always dependant on the number of experimentation points spent on the attempt - spending several points at once increases the chance of a failure.
ET429
Mon Jan 26, 2004 4:39 pm
#56
I've been crafting since a few weeks after game launch. I have had good days and very bad days at crafting.
I have not seen any consistancy in the crafting process. There have been times when I have crafted several low importance items with only a few failures and then I remember the day I couldn't even make a basic camp because it failed 6 times in a row.
On low importance items and low complexity items, a master should hardly ever have any problems crafting them. But where failures become a problem is when you're a master and making the highest quality items your skill allows. The resources involved, especially in architect or professions where looted items are used, become a factor in the frustration the crafter has to go through.
A prime example of this is when I had an order of 3 rate 13 mineral harvester. No problem I said, I had all the components to make more than that. I wound up makinga total of 9 harvestors just to get the 3 good ones. That left 6 that were almost usless because no one wants to buy them at a lower extraction rate. They're probably still sitting on my vendor.
Now my biggest complaint about that particular day is not that I had 6 out of 9 fail in experimentation, but that there is not one thing I can possibly do in the game to make that average get any better. That is where the efficiency or quality of the tools, stations, resources and skill status should come into play.
Making Master status or higher experimentation/assembly points should contribute to having fewer crafting failures.
Using a 14+ crafting tool should contribute to having fewer crafting failures.
Using a 40+ crafting station should contribute to having fewer crafting failures.
Using resources with required stats all 900+ should contribute to having fewer crafting failures and a quality product.
Item complexity should contribute to increasing/decreasing failure chances.
I feel the code should be written to do checks on each and every item and base the failure/success rates on these numbers. This way a new crafter who can't afford or make high quality tools will be able to craft low complexity items at a reasonable rate. As they progress up the tree they are allowed to craft more complex items, but unless they use higher quality resources or upgrade their tools/stations, they will still have a higher failure rate on the more complex items. They finally reach master, sell or makebetter tools/stations and can then decrease their failure rate.
An example for a base system would be to start off with the max quality/items available. Meaning assembly/experimentation points maxed (125 pts each I believe is max), crafting tool maxed at +15, crafting station maxed at +45, and materials needed maxed at 1000 on each stat that is required. Not sure where to throw complexity in there my guess is complexity is 0. If all of this was possible to do, then there should be a 100% chance of success and you would never fail at making that component. Now as each of those numbers declines, a formula would have to be in place to factor in all of the data and have an outcome of an acceptable failure/success rate.
This would allow crafters to be able to change or have some control over their crafting results. If I had a high failure rate and knew my crafting station was a -5, I would be less likely to complain about it and focus on building or buying a better quality station knowing I'll improve my results.
But as it stands, I can get the same results crafting on my +43 station or go to the city and use apublic station and get the same results. It seems too random at the moment. I've told myself, that when I have a high rate of failures, it's best to forget about crafting for an hour or so and go do something else.
Sorry most of this was repetitive, but just trying to get my view across of how I feel the system should work.
Crafting should be somethingyou enjoy doing in this game, not something that makes you frustrated.
People like to strive to be better than others. This would allow some level of difference between crafters and their ability to make things.
*Also introducing some craftable items in the game that would require the extra 2 skill points in experimentation/assembly to make would allow for more content and goals for crafters to acheive. Maybe a special weapon/armor can only be made by a smith with 12 assembly points.
Just my $15 worth.....
RanesDsane
Mon Jan 26, 2004 4:47 pm
#57
Best thing that could happen with failures (assembly) is the return of all components and any resources in large quantities.
Plageron
Mon Jan 26, 2004 4:51 pm
#58
Chrysalide wrote:Hello everyone,For those of you with which I have not had the pleasure to interact, I am the developer that has been tasked with reviewing the rate of critical failures during crafting. We felt that this was an important issue to look into, as many of the player correspondent for the crafting professions are reporting that the crafting community as a whole are reporting an abnormally high percentage of critical failures.In an effort to document some concrete numbers, Thunderheart and I worked in conjunction with some of the player correspondents on Test Center over the last several days. We began logging crafting attempts for assembly and experimentation, and the critical failures for these areas, to see exactly what the rate of failure was. The results of this test case are as follows:Assembly attempts: 1448
Assembly critical failures: 65
Assembly critical failure rate: 4.49%Experimentation attempts: 1284
Experimentation critical failures: 54
Experimentation critical failure rate: 4.21%These numbers do fall within the expected parameters of the crafting system. Regardless, the significant number of people that have raised this issue does still lend this topic an air of legitimacy. I am interested in hearing any suggestions, comments, and/or concerns that the crafting community (or anyone at all) might have about critical failures as they relate to the crafting process.I do have a minor change to crafting in development somewhat reducing the rate of critical failure. I believe this solution will be amicable to everyone, but I am definitely open to hearing any feedback about the existing system that anyone might have. While we may not be able to implement every suggestion, we do take them to heart and will do what we can to make it the best system for all parties involved.Thanks to everyone for all your help, and your continued support,Jeff "Chrysalide" Carpenter
DeveloperMessage Edited by Chrysalide on 01-26-2004 12:13 PM
On thing that needs to be adressed above all else is the critical failure on experimentation that causes an entire line of experimentation to becopme zero.
IF you try to experiment that line it will say you get a critical success, and the complexity of the object increases but nothing happens.
Also I might point out that a critical failure of the type I just mentioned also increases the complexity of something.
Sorry but That makes no sense...should decrease the complexity, especially if it has a zero rating for something.
The other failure for the entire object, is another problem....why are there two critical failure chances.
One during experimentation, and one for the final combine....What the heck is that about? should be one or the other not both.
In other words your percentages reflect the final assembly but not the internal expermental critical failures.
On average I wopuld say my rate combining the two is about 24% as a Master Crafter type, but then I am only a Bio-Engineer who does not get as many bonus' like the Artisan Based Groups.
And when I critically fail...i dont just lose 50,000 units which I can easily get again with some credits or just harvest.
I have to go out, die a few times, and pray I can get some more DNA from some agressive creature with a skill that has 3 different failure percentages in it instead of one.(Failure to use the skill, Failure to Aquire a sample, Failure to Aquire a Viable sample which is a personal favorite)
Vinaddar
Mon Jan 26, 2004 5:06 pm
#59
Chrysalide--
I am willing to craft 100 high end doctor items (Enhance D's I suppose) to test failures on a live server and catalog the results, if you think it might help generate more data for us. Granted, I won't be using my best avain/reactive, but it's the thought that counts.
Vinaddar
Barb-Wire
Mon Jan 26, 2004 5:06 pm
#60
masters should not fail on assembly period.
the successes for experimentation is where the crafting shouldbe "interesting"
and im not a crafter.
the successes for experimentation is where the crafting shouldbe "interesting"
and im not a crafter.
KittenofDestiny
Mon Jan 26, 2004 5:20 pm
#61
You should make Jedi have 0 critical failures on crafting a saber.
It's a realy pain to lose 4 pearls = 20million credits in one swoop.
K.
mmaughme
Mon Jan 26, 2004 5:31 pm
#62
I'm a Master Bio-Engineer. I don't have my notes with me, but...
Last week I hand-crafted about 40 Enhanced Myoflex Treatment tissues, with a stockpile of eggs I'd collected over the prior weeks.
One half of my tissues failed either on assembly or experimentation. Of the 20 failures, only 4-5 of them were critical assembly failures -- the remainder were experimental failures.
Even so, this reflects a 50% overall failure rate. Pretty nasty, given the time required to gather the necessary resources.
Solo4114
Mon Jan 26, 2004 5:36 pm
#63
For my money, the issue is less with critical failures and more with what "moderate success" and "success" mean. With moderate successes, the quality you were experimenting on can often decrease from its pre-experimentation state. With successes, the experimentation doesn't seem to change at all. How are these to be considered successful by any stretch of the imagination? Unless you consider a success as "not blowing the thing up", I'd say this stuff needs a revamp too. Purely based on percentages, I'd say the crit failure rate seems about right, but I'd grade it by level so that masters have 1% chance to fail and everyone else gets progressively better as they move up the food chain so to speak.
Chrysalide wrote:
Hello everyone,
For those of you with which I have not had the pleasure to interact, I am the developer that has been tasked with reviewing the rate of critical failures during crafting. We felt that this was an important issue to look into, as many of the player correspondent for the crafting professions are reporting that the crafting community as a whole are reporting an abnormally high percentage of critical failures.
In an effort to document some concrete numbers, Thunderheart and I worked in conjunction with some of the player correspondents on Test Center over the last several days. We began logging crafting attempts for assembly and experimentation, and the critical failures for these areas, to see exactly what the rate of failure was. The results of this test case are as follows:
Assembly attempts: 1448
Assembly critical failures: 65
Assembly critical failure rate: 4.49%
Experimentation attempts: 1284
Experimentation critical failures: 54
Experimentation critical failure rate: 4.21%
These numbers do fall within the expected parameters of the crafting system. Regardless, the significant number of people that have raised this issue does still lend this topic an air of legitimacy. I am interested in hearing any suggestions, comments, and/or concerns that the crafting community (or anyone at all) might have about critical failures as they relate to the crafting process.
I do have a minor change to crafting in development somewhat reducing the rate of critical failure. I believe this solution will be amicable to everyone, but I am definitely open to hearing any feedback about the existing system that anyone might have. While we may not be able to implement every suggestion, we do take them to heart and will do what we can to make it the best system for all parties involved.
Thanks to everyone for all your help, and your continued support,
Jeff "Chrysalide" Carpenter
Developer
Message Edited by Chrysalide on 01-26-2004 12:13 PM
StrayCat1212
Mon Jan 26, 2004 5:37 pm
#64
Chrysalide wrote:
Hello everyone,
For those of you with which I have not had the pleasure to interact, I am the developer that has been tasked with reviewing the rate of critical failures during crafting. We felt that this was an important issue to look into, as many of the player correspondent for the crafting professions are reporting that the crafting community as a whole are reporting an abnormally high percentage of critical failures.
In an effort to document some concrete numbers, Thunderheart and I worked in conjunction with some of the player correspondents on Test Center over the last several days. We began logging crafting attempts for assembly and experimentation, and the critical failures for these areas, to see exactly what the rate of failure was. The results of this test case are as follows:
Assembly attempts: 1448
Assembly critical failures: 65
Assembly critical failure rate: 4.49%
Experimentation attempts: 1284
Experimentation critical failures: 54
Experimentation critical failure rate: 4.21%
These numbers do fall within the expected parameters of the crafting system. Regardless, the significant number of people that have raised this issue does still lend this topic an air of legitimacy. I am interested in hearing any suggestions, comments, and/or concerns that the crafting community (or anyone at all) might have about critical failures as they relate to the crafting process.
I do have a minor change to crafting in development somewhat reducing the rate of critical failure. I believe this solution will be amicable to everyone, but I am definitely open to hearing any feedback about the existing system that anyone might have. While we may not be able to implement every suggestion, we do take them to heart and will do what we can to make it the best system for all parties involved.
Thanks to everyone for all your help, and your continued support,
Jeff "Chrysalide" Carpenter
Developer
Message Edited by Chrysalide on 01-26-2004 12:13 PM
There are alot of missing variables here in the test as described above:
- How many points of experimentation did you put in before running the experiment?
- What was the Malleability rating of the resources you used?
- Did you bring the number of experimentation points to just below acquiring a Risk percentage?
- If yes, then what was the Risk percentage?
- What was the complexity of the item you were crafting?
- What was your skill rating?
My general feeling (being an ex-Combat Medic and ex-Doctor and currently a master DE and a master Artisan) is that there are too many crit failures in the whole process. Crit failures for the initial combine of the final product seems too high...almost as if the complexity of the components combines with the complexity of the final product to give an abnormally high complexity that the assembly skill modifier compares against. For example, an R3 Advanced Unit with 10 or so components fails ALOT more than making one of the high end components with one or none sub-component parts. That final product crit failure is devastating as it can take alot of work just to get all the components together.
Crit failures in experimentation doesn't seem to be working right either. The risk vs reward is what I am talking about. It should be that if you use more experimentation points, your risk goes up but if you get a good success then the gains are much higher. And if you fail, then your loss is much worse. Right now, the best way to experiment is just to add 2-3 pts at a time. As a master crafter, that usually guarantees 0% risk shown and you get the same amount of gain (after all experimentation is done) if you use 5 pts at a time or 2 pts at a time.
But, when you take into account crit failures in the experimentation (and the fact that most crafters throw out their product if they get one) and you couple that crit failures on the final product, that is alot of crit failures. I think crit failures should be completely thrown out. They do nothing but waste a person's time. That takes roughly 15-30 min depending how familiar you are with the parts needed and how fast you click. A crit fail while trying to construct the final product results in 30 min of life being lost? Casual gamers will find that unacceptable and will not find that as fun. Reminds me of DAOC where you would start crafting, watch a bar fill-up for 2 min, and then see that you crit failed....why??? Differences in product should come from varied results in experimentation and the risk that the crafter wants to take while making the components and products. Right now, there is no way to push an item past its specs because of caps on the resources. Master crafters easily hit these caps with experimentation. Take for instance crafting a higher level droid from scratch with the 10 components as listed above.
mmaughme
Mon Jan 26, 2004 5:52 pm
#65
Solo4114 wrote:
For my money, the issue is less with critical failures and more with what "moderate success" and "success" mean.
Good point. I should clarify my message above, in which I mentioned 40 bio-tissues, half of which failed. Of the half that failed, 4-5 were assembly failures. The remainder I consider failures for any result less than "Good Success". So I had 15-16 in this range.