Architect Archive

Thread: Experimentation Method

FreeEnterprise
Fri Feb 20, 2004 12:19 am
#14

This has turned into a great thread, I especially like the idea that a low exp point first try with a cf allows you to still gain some BER over base......that is something I never thought about. My original intention was just to see if people felt cf's were based on number of experimentation "tries" or number of experimentation "points". I have always believed it was a mixture of the two......you get a roll with every try, but a penalty to the roll for ever point you use, something to that effect. Meaning you would have less rolls with an "all-in-one" experimentation try but using that many points at once increases your chance of a cf.



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Pawlin
Fri Feb 20, 2004 10:44 am
#15






ZenDragonMLS wrote:
.... I'm of the school that says "if there is always a 'floor' to the chance to CF, then the more clicks you make the higher the chances that you'll get one CF in the batch".

But once I make a 13, I make a schematic, so I don't do this all that often anymore.




I'm of the same opinion on both points.


As far as risk of failures goes, it could work like similar to this:


Say the distribution of experimentation results is something like: Amazing - 5%, great - 70%, good - 15%, fail 5%, crit fail 5%
(I know I'm missing some types but this is just for example purposes)


You've got a 75% chance of getting great success or better and 25% chance of getting worse than great.


So ifyou do it 2 points at a time then you've got 25% chance of getting less than great success each time.


So say 2 points at a time means 4 experimentations for extraction rate with 2 more points for the storage hopper. That makes your chance of getting a sub great sucess on extraction rate pretty high. Statistically speaking it would be likely that you'd get worse than great in at least 1 of your 4 tries. Like if you roll a die 6 times then you are likely to get a 5 at least once.


However if you do 6 points and then 2 points then you'd have .25 + .25 or only a 2:1 chance of getting a poor experimentation. Or if you roll a die only 2 times then its only 33% likely you'll get a 5.


These numbers are not meant to an accurate reflection of the actual experimentation rates at all and are just used for example purposes. And its only a theory that success rates are directly linear like this.


It could be that using 6 points at a time gives you 3 times the failure rate likelyhood than if you used 2 points. In that case how many points you use wouldn't change your probability of poor experimentation.




Pawlin Construction of Kettemoor.
Harvesters and Crafting stations - Triad Coronet Mall just outside Coronet (-177 -5490)
Architect, House, Furniture, Harvester FAQ

Oprolan the Wookiee of Sunrunner. Cheap resources W. Daeric Talus (-639 -3058)
"Worst FF ever *thumbsdown*" -- Pawlin fan club
"I am not going to win Miss Congeniality again this year in the Senate." -- John McCain


** Please refer to Elyssa's answer
BoberFett
Fri Feb 20, 2004 12:08 pm
#16

Pawlin


The issue for me is recovery from failure. Personally, I'm not concerned about the level of success for each point. With good materials, a master should be able to hit max extraction with a couple points left. Using my high quality station and tools in a research center, I seem to get about 75% great successes. I can't quantify that, it's just rough estimate based on my experiences, it seems you've seen similar numbers. I'll use your numbers in my example:


Amazing - 5%

Great - 70%

Good - 15%

Fail 5%

Crit fail 5%


The only one I'm really concerned with is crit fail. Assuming we're going to crit fail 1/20 of the time, if you put all of your experimentation points into the item the first experiment, you're going to end up with a throwing away 1 out of every 20 items. If you do 2 points at a time, you're only spreading the 20 experiments over 5 items but when you do hit your crit fail, you can recover from it because it's not nearly as severe as a crit fail when using 8 points.


The great thing about statistics is that you can use the exact same numbers to reach any conclusion you want.
BoberFett
Fri Feb 20, 2004 1:30 pm
#17

I'm with Stargzrrag. I start with one, because a crit fail on the first experiment while using more than a couple points is basically unrecoverable. The more you experiment with at a time, the more you risk. If you start at 25%, use three points, and crit fail, you're probably going to 0% or very close and almost impossible to recover from. So I start with one, then do twos from there out. Even if I get a crit fail once during build, I can usually recover from it because it was only a one or two point failure instead of five.
Pawlin
Sat Feb 21, 2004 1:01 am
#18

Bober,


I see your point.


Might be that the different methods will benefit different goals.


I normally make schematic deeds. So if I get 1 good deed then I'm set. However if I get anything less than max BER then its virtually a waste. So I'd rather have 70% perfect and 30% garbage than 60% perfect, 35% good and 5% garbage.


If my method gives me a much higher chance of getting a max BER on the first try then thats what I want.


Now if you are making harvesters one at a time by hand and spreading around the experiment points will give you a lot more BER12's instead of BER 9 - 10's from the failures then that might be more worth it.


e.g. say my way gives me 7 BER 13's, a BER 12 and 2 BER 9's Thats pretty good if I'm making schematics. Basically 70% success rate. I make 1 maybe 2 deeds then I've got a schematic.


On the other hand if spending points 2 at a time gives6 BER 13's,2 BER 12 and 2 BER 11 then that would be a more valuable result if you are making the deeds individually without a schematic. Those BER 12's and BER 11's are worth a lot more than a BER 9 would be.


Course this is still all based on a lot of assumption.







Pawlin Construction of Kettemoor.
Harvesters and Crafting stations - Triad Coronet Mall just outside Coronet (-177 -5490)
Architect, House, Furniture, Harvester FAQ

Oprolan the Wookiee of Sunrunner. Cheap resources W. Daeric Talus (-639 -3058)
"Worst FF ever *thumbsdown*" -- Pawlin fan club
"I am not going to win Miss Congeniality again this year in the Senate." -- John McCain


** Please refer to Elyssa's answer
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